What Mickelson’s Win Means for Majors Betting
© Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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After nearly five years, Phil Mickelson is back in the winner’s circle following a playoff victory over Justin Thomas at the WGC-Mexico Championship.
Mickelson went off as high at +2500 before the tournament and was +550 heading into the final round.
When Phil wins this close to the Masters, all eyes shift to Augusta, where he’s won three times. But while it’s hard to say there’s a lot of value in his odds for that event at +1800, there’s a lot more to like with Mickelson in the other three majors.
As of March 4, Mickelson is at +4000 in the U.S. Open, +5000 at the Open Championship and +5500 at the PGA Championship. He’s won only once at the PGA and Open championships and is still looking for that first U.S. Open, but these are spots where you may get some rare value on Phil.
We also learned Thomas is essentially like a video game at this point. He had no business factoring in this tournament after being 11 shots back headed into the weekend, but a 62 on Saturday and a 64 on Sunday capped by an insane shot on his 72nd hole got him into the playoff.
Thomas had his Masters odds cut from +1200 to +1000, but his numbers are in the same spot for the other three majors. He’s +1800 at the U.S. Open, +2000 at the Open Championship and +1600 at the PGA Championship.
Everything we mentioned last week still applies: He’s so dialed in that all he needs is a hot 36 holes to contend.
Finally, Tyrrell Hatton stepped up and gave us a real sweat to cash a +4500 winner before a bogey cost him a spot in the playoff.
The 26-year old Hatton rubs a lot of fans the wrong way with his negative reactions to shots, but I like his game a lot. He’s straight off the tee with enough distance to compete, and if his approach game is clicking, he’s a guy who can get white hot with the putter. For the American fans who haven’t seen him much, I liken him to a British version of Kevin Kisner with a Zach Johnson-type of ceiling.
We posted a write-up on him last fall, and he went on to win in back-to-back weeks in Europe. Hatton is going to factor in some important tournaments this season. I have him +15000 and +18000 to win the Masters, and he’s still available for +7000, though I’m not sure that’s the spot for him. My eye is on the Players’ Championship at TPC Sawgrass and the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, where he’s available at +8000. Those are two courses where distance can get neutralized a bit, similar to what we saw this week in Mexico with the altitude.
Top Photo: Phil Mickelson
Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports