Sobel’s BMW Championship Matchup Bets: Another Chance to Fade Tiger in Round 2?
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tiger Woods
Well, that was easy.
(For the pros, at least.)
Medinah No. 3, which has hosted both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, is set up to 7,600-plus yards this week, suggesting it was going to be a brutal test for the PGA Tour’s best players.
Not so much. In the opening round of the BMW Championship, 58 of the 69 players in the field broke par and only two posted scores over par.
With conditions expected to stay soft, we should expect more low scores in Friday’s second round. Here are my three favorite matchups:
Ryan Moore (Even) over Jason Day
One of my favorite ways of adding value in single-round H2H bets is to stick with the guys you liked before it started.
I was on Moore and fading Day; even though the latter was better by one stroke Thursday, that doesn’t mean we should abandon ship. Day used the second-best putting performance in the field to salvage a below-average ball-striking round.
Expect a few of those putts to stop falling and expect Moore to win this one by a couple.
Billy Horschel (-105) over Tiger Woods
All of those pre-tourney Tiger fades weren’t looking too good when Woods showed up looking and (according to him) feeling healthy in the first round, though he didn’t get much out of his game, posting a 1-under 71.
Knowing he needs a Herculean effort to advance to the Tour Championship, he could play a little more aggressively Friday — and that could easily backfire.
Patrick Cantlay (-105) over Jon Rahm
Make no mistake: I try not to bet against Rahm, who’s capable of going super-low any day, but Cantlay appeared dialed in Thursday, his 6-under 66 featuring strong strokes gained numbers across the board.
He wouldn’t be an underdog in many matchups, but in those where he is — like this one — he’s the smart play.