Rating 80+ British Open Golf Matchup Props: Koepka Over Spieth, More

The Action Network golf guru Colin Davy built a British Open-specific model that takes into account all the relevant metrics for a player: Overall strokes per round, adjusted for playing conditions and strength of field, plus player history and weather conditions. That model powers our British Open Mega Guide, which you should definitely check out. And it’s also able to predict what an accurate matchup prop line should be.

Thankfully a ton of sites around the industry have provided us with loads of British Open props to bet. In this piece, I’m looking at more than 80 matchup props. Lines are current as of Tuesday evening.

I’m posting a table at the bottom of the piece with each listed prop, Colin’s predicted line, and the difference between the two. But before that, let me go more deeply on eight that really stand out per our data.

Real line: Si Woo Kim (-150) vs. Shaun Norris (+120)
Model line: Si Woo Kim (-293) vs. Shaun Norris (+293)
Model pick: Si Woo Kim -150

Colin's model ranks this as the best advantage, which has Kim as a -150 favorite over Norris. The former is a 36-year-old South African golfer on the Sunshine Tour — a lower-tier tour in South Africa. Kim is certainly not the best player on the PGA Tour, but just being on it suggests he's miles better than Norris. Short of a disastrous showing, Kim should be a massive favorite in this matchup.

Real line: Jason Day (-115) vs. Sergio Garcia (-115)
Model line: Jason Day (-246) vs. Sergio Garcia (+246)
Model pick: Jason Day -115

There are differing opinions from some of our analysts this week on Garcia. The former Masters winner has admittedly been quite poor over the past year, notably missing four of five cuts in April through June. He hasn't even made the weekend in the two majors this season, let alone contend. However, Jason Sobel thinks he's on the upswing and should get back on track on the links-style Carnoustie, which fits his game. Colin's model disagrees, so let the best man/computer win.

Real line: Patrick Cantlay (-135) vs. Brandt Snedeker (+105)
Model line: Patrick Cantlay (-256) vs. Brandt Snedeker (+256)
Model pick: Patrick Cantlay -135

Cantlay is still quite undervalued in the betting market. He's tied for the ninth-best Long-Term Adjusted Round Score — ahead of notable studs such as Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood — and yet he has significantly lower odds to win. Cantlay is a significantly better fit for Carnoustie than Snedeker, whose 63.9% Long-Term Greens in Regulation mark is subpar. I agree with Colin's model here: Pay the -135 price.

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tony Finau

Real line: Brooks Koepka (-115) vs. Jordan Spieth (-115)
Model line: Brooks Koepka (-228) vs. Jordan Spieth (+228)
Model pick: Brooks Koepka -115

Spieth will likely get a lot of buzz this week because he won the British Open last year. However, his recent play is quite uninspiring: He's missed two of his last three cuts, and he doesn't have a top 20 in any of his past six events. Koepka, meanwhile, just won his second straight U.S. Open, and he showed last year he can keep his play up at the British. He had a share of the lead after the end of the first round last year and ended up T-6.

Real line: Justin Thomas (-125) vs. Alex Noren (-105)
Model line: Justin Thomas (-234) vs. Alex Noren (+234)
Model pick: Justin Thomas -125

The Euro players will always be more popular at the British Open than any other tournament. For that reason, Noren isn't even plus money against Thomas. Colin's model seems to be less worried about that and instead is banking on the superior talent of JT, who was recently the World's No. 1 golfer.

Real line: Dustin Johnson (-115) vs. Justin Rose (-115)
Model line: Dustin Johnson (-196) vs. Justin Rose (+196)
Model pick: Dustin Johnson -115

These are two of the best golfers in the world, and they've been dominating this year. However, Colin's model is seemingly very high on World No. 1 Dustin Johnson, whose best golf is better than anyone else's best golf. Rose oddly doesn't have amazing history at the Open, placing in the top 10 just twice in his 16 tries. DJ should definitely be a bigger favorite here.

Credit: USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bubba Watson

Real line: Tony Finau (-135) vs. Rafa Cabrera-Bello (+105)
Model line: Tony Finau (-215) vs. Rafa Cabrera-Bello (+215)
Model pick: Tony Finau -215

Another one of golf's criminally underrated golfers, Finau is probably the best DFS and betting value in the entire field. His Long-Term Adjusted Round is elite — it's ahead of the marks of Stenson, McIlroy and Fleetwood, in fact — and he's been quite hot lately, notably playing in the final group at last month's U.S. Open. The upside between Finau and RCB just isn't close.

Real line: Ryan Fox (-130) vs. Danny Willett (+100)
Model line: Ryan Fox (-196) vs. Danny Willett (+196)
Model pick: Ryan Fox -130

And I'm adding this one to show that there's great value in some of the matchups between lesser-known golfers. Willett gets respect as a former major winner, but he's now one of the worst players currently on tour; his 71.8 Long-Term Adjusted Round suggests he won't compete here. Fox, meanwhile, has been tearing up the Euro circuit lately, finishing in the top six in both the Scottish and Irish Open. There is immense value in this matchup.

There are a ton more exploitable props in the table below, so hop on that. Good luck!