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Rating 80+ British Open Golf Matchup Props: Koepka Over Spieth, More

Jul 18, 2018 2:53 PM EDT
  • The Action Network's Colin Davy has a proprietary golf model that helps power our predictions.
  • His model has identified several matchup props at the British Open that offer betting value.
  • The model's "favorite" prop is Si-Woo Kim (-150) over Shaun Norris.

The Action Network golf guru Colin Davy built a British Open-specific model that takes into account all the relevant metrics for a player: Overall strokes per round, adjusted for playing conditions and strength of field, plus player history and weather conditions. That model powers our British Open Mega Guide, which you should definitely check out. And it’s also able to predict what an accurate matchup prop line should be.

Thankfully a ton of sites around the industry have provided us with loads of British Open props to bet. In this piece, I’m looking at more than 80 matchup props from Sportsbook.ag. Lines are current as of Tuesday evening.

 

I’m posting a table at the bottom of the piece with each listed prop from Sportsbook, Colin’s predicted line, and the difference between the two. But before that, let me go more deeply on eight that really stand out per our data.


Real line: Si Woo Kim (-150) vs. Shaun Norris (+120)
Model line: Si Woo Kim (-293) vs. Shaun Norris (+293)
Model pick: Si Woo Kim -150

Colin’s model ranks this as the best advantage over Sportsbook.ag, which has Kim as a -150 favorite over Norris. The former is a 36-year-old South African golfer on the Sunshine Tour — a lower-tier tour in South Africa. Kim is certainly not the best player on the PGA Tour, but just being on it suggests he’s miles better than Norris. Short of a disastrous showing, Kim should be a massive favorite in this matchup.

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Credit:

Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brooks Koepka

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears
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