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Charley Hoffman a Boom-Or-Bust Bet at U.S. Open

For analysis of the top 85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics.


The Info: Charley Hoffman

DFS Pricing: $7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

U.S. Open History (2013-2017): T-45, N/A, MC, T-37, 8

Odds: +12,500 to win, +1200 top-10 finish, +500 top-20 finish

Best Odds Value: +1200 top-10 finish

Best Matchup Value: Charley Hoffman (-130) over Graeme McDowell

Tee Times: 8:24 a.m. (Thursday); 2:09 p.m. (Friday)

For more U.S. Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

Hoff doesn’t have great history at the U.S. Open but did get his first top 10 last year at Erin Hills. While he has decent long-term form and distance, his recent play has been atrocious. He ranks 75th in the field in Recent Adjusted Round Score and has missed two of his past four cuts in much weaker fields. Last week was especially concerning: He hit just 52.8% of greens and 57.1% of fairways. He can put up DraftKings points given his ability to make birdies, but he’s definitely a boom-or-bust play given his iffy ball-striking of late. Given the potential weather issues and terrible rough at Shinnecock, it’s much more likely that he’ll bust this week.


The Metrics

Here’s how Hoffman ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-25th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-75th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 53rd
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: T-49th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 46th

Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears
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