Sobel’s Farmers Insurance Open Matchup Bets: Fade the Leader in Round 4

A quick non-sequitor before we get to the Farmers Insurance Open final-round matchup bets: I hate the idea of “back-door finishes.”

Back-door top-fives. Or top-10s. Whatever.

Even more, I hate the idea that this should somehow be perceived as a negative trait in players. I mean, aren’t these guys supposed to play their best on Sundays instead of Thursdays?

Anyway, let’s get to the matchups, which include some players going for strong results. Just don’t call ‘em back-door finishes.

Season record: 21-26-2 (-4.71 units)

Jon Rahm over Justin Rose by -0.5 (+115)

Traditionally, second and third-round leaders not named Tiger Woods haven’t fared very well at Torrey Pines. Three balls in the water Saturday suggests Rose’s game is hanging by a thread.

Meanwhile, Rahm owns the experience of putting up a final-round 66 to win at Torrey just two years ago. History could repeat itself Sunday.

Michael Thompson over Hideki Matsuyama (+155)

Of all players in the current top-20, Matsuyama is the only one who posted a Saturday round over-par. He’s clearly on the verge of some good things soon, but not quite there yet.

Thompson usually gets it done with his putter, but this week he’s fourth in strokes gained on approach shots and just 62nd in putting. If he rolls in a few more Sunday, he should be able to pull off the upset in this matchup.

Sung Kang over John Huh (-125)

Last week, Huh finished T-70; in his previous eight starts, he didn’t make a single cut. He’s matched up against Kang, a solid ball-striker who owns three top-30 results during that same time span.

I don’t like to call out the oddsmakers for being asleep at the switch, but Kang should be closer to -160 here. He’s an absolute bargain at -125.