Quicken Loans National Betting Guide: Value on Mid-Tier Golfers in Weak Field

Quicken Loans National Betting Guide: Value on Mid-Tier Golfers in Weak Field article feature image
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Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joaquin Niemann

With Tiger Woods hosting, we’d expect a stronger field this week at The National. But instead, we’re treated to one of the weakest full-field events of the PGA Tour season.

Rickie Fowler opens as the +650 pre-tournament favorite. Woods is next in line at +1200. Only three other golfers — Marc Leishman, Kyle Stanley and Francesco Molinari — are +2000 or less. So yeah, weak field outside Washington, D.C. this week.

All odds as of Monday afternoon.

The Course

This is just the second time TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will host the event after the tournament moved there a year ago. It will move to Detroit in 2019.

The 7,107-yard, par-70 course played the fourth-most difficult on tour last year. Kyle Stanley and Charles Howell III set the pace at 7-under par before Stanley won the event with a par on the first playoff hole.

Outside of 2017, we don’t have any other history to draw from the last decade. But just looking at those results and seeing how the course was set up, a couple of things were clear.

 

Precision off the tee is required for success. The fairways aren’t very wide, and there is little margin for error, with thick rough waiting to swallow up errant drives. Bunkers surround speedy bentgrass greens, putting an importance on the iron game, as well.

We’re going to be looking for players who can gain ground off the tee without necessarily hitting it a long way, because the bomb-and-gouge technique isn’t really going to work here. Players will need to combine that with a dialed-in approach game.

The Favorites

Fowler tops the betting odds. He finished two shots back in third here last year and is the strongest player in the field. But at +650, there is zero value for a guy who has four wins in 207 starts. Can he win? Of course, but you can’t make money long term betting Fowler at that number.

Woods is next at +1200, and the same thing applies here as it does with Fowler. Woods can win this, but there’s no value at this number. If he can’t keep his drives in the fairway, he’ll struggle to score.

If you’re looking for a play at the top of the board, I’d lean toward Molinari at +2000. He’s coming off the biggest win of his career a few weeks ago at the BMW PGA Championship in England. He backed that up with a runner-up finish in Europe and a Top 25 at the U.S. Open. He’s one of the more accurate drivers in the world and fourth in this field in fairways gained. He’s also eighth on tour this year in strokes gained off the tee.

Mid-Tier

A few guys popped out to me in this middle range. There’s a mix of overall talent and upside that’s on par with guys who have much lower odds.

The first player I’m looking at is youngster Joaquin Niemann at +4000. The 19-year old has been inconsistent in his early career on tour. In his last seven starts, he has three top-10 finishes and four missed cuts. But when he’s on, he can contend in good fields, like we saw at the Memorial. Just three weeks ago, Niemann entered the St. Jude Classic at +3500 in a field with Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Henrik Stenson. No one in this field can match any of those three with his ability to win a golf tournament.

I’m also going to back Byeong Hun An at +4000. An is another player with a great tee-to-green game and a balky putter. But he’s put up a few good results this year — most recently reaching a playoff at the Memorial before losing to Bryson DeChambeau.

I like Gary Woodland and Chesson Hadley in the +5000 range. The form hasn’t been there recently with either player. Because of that, we’ve seen their odds drift from the +3300 range we’d normally see for a field of this caliber. Hadley is one guy in particular I’ve backed a quite a bit this season. A win appeared close a month ago, but he’s cooled off in recent weeks. I’ll go back to the well one more time.

Another notch down the board, I’m looking at Adam Hadwin at +8000. He’s an accurate driver who is solid with his irons. His best results tend to come on the West Coast, but this setup should put the emphasis on the best parts of his game.

Long Shots

With a heavier investment in the mid-tier than normal, I won’t take too many long shots this week.

I do like Ryan Armour at 125-1 and Ben Crane at 100-1. Their styles are similar to Hadwin’s — they’re going to keep the ball in play off the tee and hit a lot of greens. I doubt there will be too much interest in either, so the numbers may drift higher later in the week. I’ll be patient on both of them and see if anything larger pops up.