One day later, a muddied picture gives us a clearer reason to keep firing bets on the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.
After the opening round, this thing looked like it might be a whitewash for the longshots, with pre-tourney favorite Bryson DeChambeau leading third-favorite Patrick Cantlay by one stroke.
They’re both still very much in the mix going into the weekend — Cantlay is part of a five-way tie for the lead and DeChambeau is one shot back — but there are also plenty of others in the mix for this title.
The good news for Bryson backers is that, if you had the patience to wait, he’s now dropped from +700 before the opening round to +200 before the second round to +275 before the third. If you’re inclined to take him no matter what, at least a better price should have you a little more interested than it did one day earlier.
If there’s one major advantage to making that bet, it’s that the Las Vegas forecast has changed from 20+ mph winds during both weekend rounds to something more in the 15 mph range. I’m a believer that strong wind can be a great equalizer of DeChambeau’s drives. After all, nothing goes 360 yards in the exact direction you want when the wind is blowing.
If we want to look a little deeper on the leaderboard for potential outright bets, I’ve got one name I’ll seriously consider with longer odds.
Dylan Frittelli might not be the sexiest name on the board right now — and he’s certainly not anywhere close to the favorite — ranking three strokes behind the current leaders. However, he’s the only player inside the top 20 who is negative strokes gained in putting. Just a little movement toward the positive side could move Frittelli closer to that pack atop the board.
At 50/1, I think he’s worth the risk.
Round 3 Matchups
Dylan Frittelli (+120) over Harold Varner III
I mean, if I’m going to recommend Frittelli as an outright, it stands to reason that I’ll like him in this H2H matchup, too. He currently ranks second in strokes gained tee to green, which should bode well for his third-round chances.
Nate Lashley (+135) over James Hahn
Hahn is a great dude, the kind of “normal guy” that normal guys should want to root for. But he’s also playing on a Major Medical Extension, meaning there’s some additional pressure on him to play well this week. Fresh off the lowest opening 36-hole total of his career, I don’t mind fading him against a plus-money play such as Lashley, who has actually struck the ball much better over the first two rounds.
Peter Malnati (+240) over Bryson DeChambeau
Look, don’t go re-mortgaging your house on this one. DeChambeau is the most recent major champion; Malnati is just a few days removed from his first top-10 on the PGA TOUR in more than four-and-a-half years. That’s a big number, though, and even in less-than-blustery winds, I could see Bryson getting frustrated if it starts to blow. In fact, the number is just about the same as Kansas State’s money line against TCU. If you believe a 9.5-point ‘dog can win outright, then you can believe a guy like Malnati can beat a guy like DeChambeau.
