Betting the PGA Championship Favorites: 25-1 Range Ripe With Big-Name Value

Aug 06, 2018 1:01 AM EDT
  • Dustin Johnson (+725), Justin Thomas (+1215) and Rory McIlroy (+1215) are the top three betting favorites at the 2018 PGA Championship, which will be held at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis from Aug. 9-12.
  • That trio doesn't have betting value at those numbers, but a few golfers in the 25-1 range are worth a look in golf's final major championship of the season.

I have to thank Justin Thomas for padding the bankroll a week before a major by taking down the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at a completely undervalued 30-1 price. That marks the 11th outright winner picked in my Action Network articles this season.

Thomas is back to No. 2 in the world and is getting much more respect from the oddsmakers heading into the final major of the year, the PGA Championship, where he’s the defending champion. He opened at +1215 on BookMaker, matching Rory McIlroy as the second favorite behind Dustin Johnson at +725.

With those numbers, we’ll bid adieu to Thomas this week and try to find the next mispriced favorite.

All odds via BookMaker as of Sunday evening.


The Course

Bellerive Country Club will host its first major this week, playing as a 7,329-yard par 70. The fourth and 10th holes were converted from par 5s for the members to long par 4s this week.


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The course is a bit of a mystery in terms of setup and what type of player will benefit the most. It hasn’t hosted a PGA tournament since the BMW Championship in 2008, when Camilo Villegas held off Dudley Hart for a two-stroke win. That year, Bellerive played shorter (6,959 yards) and was a par 71. So we’ll probably see something less than the 15-under number Villegas won with.

Jim Furyk and Brian Gay are the only players who finished inside the top 15 in the 2008 FedEx Cup playoff event who will tee it up this week.


Where’s the Betting Value?

Getting back to the top of the board, I won’t be backing any of the top three favorites because I just don’t play those numbers. But with Thomas, Johnson and McIlroy finishing first, third and sixth, respectively, this past week, I get why anyone would jump back in.

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Credit:

Ian Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jordan Spieth

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