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PGA Championship: How to Bet Sunday’s Final Round

Credit:

Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rickie Fowler

  • Brooks Koepka leads the PGA Championship entering Sunday's final round and is at +125 odds to win.
  • From a betting perspective, it’s really hard to fade Brooks in this spot. He’s leading the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, hitting great approaches and putting very well.
  • Beyond Koepka, two players stand out as being good values.

For a little while, it looked like we were heading toward a Brooks Koepka coronation on Sunday.

But after jumping out to a solid lead on the back nine Saturday, a couple of wayward shots kept the field within striking distance heading into the final round.

Koepka is still the clear favorite, but not odds-on, coming in at +125 on Sportsbook to win his third major title.

Adam Scott is next in line at +800 and two shots back. From there, we have a plethora of guys sitting within four shots of the lead, including Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Tiger Woods and Justin Thomas.

It’s everything we could ask for from a viewing perspective on Sunday at a major.

Can Anyone Catch Brooks?

From a betting perspective, it’s really hard to fade Koepka in this spot. He’s leading the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, hitting great approaches and putting very well. Combine that with the fact that he’s won a pair of majors in the past two years, and it’s tough to expect him to come back to the pack much.

I think there are only two guys in a good spot to track Koepka down if he doesn’t slide: Rahm and Fowler are third and fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, but haven’t had the hot putter Koepka has sported this week. They’re both getting a ton of birdie looks, and if they can finally get putts to drop, then a 64 or 65 is in play.


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If Koepka fades, it’s game on for about 15 guys. Thomas, Day, Tiger and even guys like Charl Schwartzel and Francesco Molinari become much more viable plays with how well they’re striking the ball.

I don’t really think Koepka is going anywhere Sunday, so it’s going to take a historic round for anyone outside of that top five where Fowler and Rahm lurk to track him down. At +800 for Rickie and +1100 for the young Spaniard, those are the two guys I’d look at if you’re wanting to make a wager.

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