How to Bet Surging Tiger Woods at Quicken Loans National

How to Bet Surging Tiger Woods at Quicken Loans National article feature image

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports, Pictured: Tiger Woods

After a stellar second-round 65, Tiger Woods has worked his way into contention at the Quicken Loans National.

Woods’ odds to win are still in the same range as when the tournament began, dropping slightly from +1200 to +1000.

If he’s going to come out on top over the weekend, Woods will need to maneuver past another 10 or so players to make up his current four-shot deficit.

The field was relatively weak to begin with, so there aren’t really any world beaters in front of Tiger, but it will definitely be an uphill battle.

Woods is in 11th place, but two of the top four in the pre-tournament odds, Francesco Molinari and Marc Leishman, are inside the top 10. Meanwhile, pre-tournament favorite Rickie Fowler is still just a shot back of Woods in 20th. So Tiger hasn’t caught any breaks. The few strong players he had to deal with heading into the week are all in fine position entering the weekend.

Plus, Tiger’s numbers suggests that his ball-striking isn’t where it needs to be for him to win. He’s gained just one stroke total on the field with the driver and irons and is being propped up by his short game. He leads the field around the green, gaining three strokes; that includes the nice boost he got when he chipped in for birdie on the 18th hole Friday. It’s good to see him on top of his game in that area, but it doesn’t necessarily bode well for Tiger’s chances of winning the tournament. He can’t gain strokes around the green in most situations unless he’s missing the green to begin with.

For Tiger to continue his surge, he’s going to need to dial in his approach game. His driver is always erratic, so he needs more than a half a shot per round with the irons.

When I see a player who has gained one shot in the two ball-striking categories and nearly four with his short game, that suggests a fade for me. That’s the position Tiger is in.

Tiger will be a heavy favorite in a head-to-head matchup against Joel Dahmen on Saturday and is likely to be an OK play there. Dahmen is riding a hot putter and is just slightly above the field average in the two ball-striking categories, so he might slide down the leaderboard. Couple that with the Woods pairing and the crowds that go with it, and it’s easy to see a tough round may be lurking for Woods’ playing partner.

That said, while the short game has given Tiger a chance heading into the weekend, we’ll need to see the rest of his game catch up if he actually wants to win this week.