Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Round 4 Betting Guide: Finding Value Using Strokes Gained Data
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Wolff.
The scoring continued on Saturday at TPC Summerlin for everyone except the most likely contender, Bryson DeChambeau, who had to birdie the last two holes of his front nine to avoid going out in 40. He instead started with a 3-over front, which included two bogeys and two doubles. DeChambeau would climb back to finish even par on the round but is now seven shots back of the leader.
Matthew Wolff’s round was on the other end of the spectrum, as he went through a five hole stretch on the back nine that included three eagles (!!!). He shot the best round of the tournament with a 10-under 61 to climb into a tie for third just two shots back of the leaders.
Martin Laid and Patrick Cantlay will go off together in the final pairing on Sunday as they lead the field by two shots at 20-under par. They will seek to carry the momentum of their solid Saturday rounds into a pressure-packed Sunday afternoon.
I will be targeting the chasers on Sunday, as I think the low scoring environment favors those that don’t have the pressure of the lead. There are several that will stand out for our buys and fades as we look at the strokes gained data from Round 3 at the Shriners.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly playing by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different — Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics…
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball-striking and tee to green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 2
My pick to win tomorrow is Wolff. As I pointed out last week, it can be tough to follow a great round with another one, but Wolff’s 61 didn’t come out of nowhere. Despite making the cut by just one shot, the former Oklahoma State Cowboy was flashing strong ball striking on Friday and really appeared to be rounding into form.
He also has a lot of recent experience at the top of the board that may be lacking in the final group, and I expect the confidence of Saturday’s round to carry into Sunday as he looks to overtake the leaders.
I’ve been buying Harold Varner III for a good week since the start, where I played him as a Top 10 pick. I noted he has been a consistently good putter on these greens, but he has struggled to find the rest of his game. Varner had his tee-to-green game dialed in for Round 3, gaining more than two strokes on the field, but it was the putter that left strokes out there for him.
HV3 goes into Sunday in the preferred chasing position, without the pressure of the lead and just four shots back. I’m buying the guy that has consistently gained more than two strokes tee-to-green throughout the week, and I’ll be looking for him to find his putting stroke on Sunday.
Si Woo Kim is my final buy for Sunday at TPC Summerlin. He charged up the board on Moving Day with a bogey-free 8-under 63. Kim was fourth in the field tee-to-green on Saturday, gaining 3.61 strokes on the field.
The Korean struggled on Thursday on approach but has since turned it around to gain more than a stroke ball striking in each of his last two rounds, including 1.71 strokes on Saturday. He is in a tie for ninth, just four shots back of the leaders. As a multi-time TOUR winner, he is certainly in play to make a run in the final round.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 2
Party Marty Laird hasn’t won a TOUR event since 2013, and while tomorrow certainly could be his 4th career victory, I’m willing to play the fade. It’s not that Laird hasn’t been solid all week, but this fade is based on the nerves that come with the last tee time on Sunday afternoon when looking for your first win in seven years.
I’ve gotten into a trend of doubling down on my plays, but sometimes it just continues to stick out at you. Brian Harman has maintained a strong position near the top of the leaderboard despite a lack of ball striking and tee-to-green play in two of three rounds.
Harman followed up a solid second round with a Saturday that saw him lose strokes tee-to-green, and he played to right at field average ball striking. I’m back in to continue to fade the former Georgia Bulldog, as I believe his lack of consistency tee-to-green will have him tumbling down the leaderboard on Sunday.
I don’t know that this fade is on that will really resonate, especially in DFS, but if you’re looking for someone outside of the Top 10 to climb up the board, I wouldn’t click on Cameron Tringale.
He comes into the final round in a tie for 14th but lost more than a stroke and a half ball striking on Saturday. Tringale was able to salvage a 5-under 66 by gaining 3.47 strokes on the greens. In fact, over the first three rounds, he’s gained just .37 strokes tee-to-green on average. I’ll lean on the putting variance and play the fade for Tringale to fall down the board on Sunday.
Strokes Gained Data for All Players in Round 3