Tiger vs. Phil Betting Strategy: How to Live Bet The Match II at Medalist
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images for The Match. Pictured: Tom Brady, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Peyton Manning
- It's dark and rainy in Florida, but as of 2:30 p.m. ET Sunday, the Champions for Charity Match II between Tiger Woods & Peyton Manning vs. Phil Mickelson & Tom Brady is still on.
- There are numerous betting options, including props on nearly every hole, but some of the best value might come during the match.
- Below we break down how to live bet today's event, including which holes to keep your eye on.
Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning were the betting favorites when The Match II became official and it looks like The Big Cat and The Sheriff will end up close to -200 favorites by the time it tees off, leaving little room for value. Woods and Manning dipped down to -185 after Mickelson/Brady got some action late this week, but within 24-hours, it was back up to -195.
Laying the juice on Woods and Manning isn’t ideal, but they are the clear-cut favorites. Having said that, if you don’t want to pay the premium and still want to bet the favorites, there are a few scenarios, circumstances and strategies to bet Team Tiger (or Team Phil) live at Medalist Golf Club.
Live-Betting Strategy for Tiger vs. Phil II
Early to Mid-Round
There’s not going to be much we’ll glean from the first couple of holes other than how much better Woods and Mickelson are over Manning and Brady (who are outstanding golfers in their own right).
We should be looking at how Brady and Manning are missing their shots (slicing it off the tee, chunking their approaches, chipping instead of putting when they’re on the fringe, etc.) to give us a better idea of how they’ll play as the day progresses.
The subsequent live bets we should be looking at are the ‘Longest Tee Shot’ on Hole No. 3 or ‘Nearest to the Hole after Tee Shot’ on Hole No. 4 props that won’t move much in either direction after play has started.
It’s also not entirely inconceivable that Mickelson and Brady potentially get out to an early lead; the first four holes feature a short par-4, a par-5 and the second-easiest hole, the par-3 fourth.
If that’s the case, getting Tiger and Manning to be leading after nine, 12 or 15 holes is a spot where you could get them at plus money, especially in Match Play format where either team can gain or recoup a lot of points if they carry over to the next hole.
Sportsbooks are not going to be faster than you are at clicking a button (not yet, at least) and being able to discern if a golfer or team can make a putt or win the hole before the books can allow you to increase your bankroll (if you’re on the winning side).
Similar to the prop bets previously mentioned, Hole No. 5 is where you can take advantage of this strategy. All options are plus money, with a tie being the most likely outcome and at close to even money (+120).
Both Tiger and Phil should have better tee shots out of the foursome, and the better shot of the two should have a higher probability of winning. Most books won’t be adjusting the lines until all four players tee off, giving you ample time to choose the bet you like most.
Mid to Late Round
The turn is when you should start seeing favorable numbers on whoever’s trailing, depending on the deficit. Sportsbooks may be over-correcting on the ‘score’ rather than how both teams are playing.
For instance, Tiger and Manning may be winning by a few skins after nine-holes, but it could’ve been Mickelson or Brady missing a couple of putts that just burned the edge rather than them playing poorly. Those same putts could fall on the back-nine.
Revisiting the number on who’ll win the Match isn’t the only position you can bet live, but also who will win holes 10 through 18. With the modified alternate shot, there could be massive swings in either direction on who’ll be leading and, subsequently, where the value is.
Be diligent in checking the odds at all times, and make sure to have fun! Good luck, everyone!