The Best U.S. Open Betting Value Atop a Crowded Leaderboard

The Best U.S. Open Betting Value Atop a Crowded Leaderboard article feature image
Credit:

Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Henrik Stenson

The U.S. Open leaderboard got a massive overhaul after some insanely difficult conditions at Shinnecock.

Dustin Johnson’s four-stroke lead vanished in a matter of six holes, but he kept his game together enough to remain the favorite at +250 as part of a four-way tie for the lead entering Sunday.

 

Johnson is joined at the top by defending champion Brooks Koepka (+350), Daniel Berger (+800) and Tony Finau (+800). Berger and Finau, who will go off in the final pairing Sunday, shot rounds of 66 on Saturday and then watched the leaders collapse.

Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson are still lurking one and two shots back, respectively. Rose comes in at +500, and Stenson is available at +1000.

I’m not personally adding anything, but if you’re jumping in for the final round, that Stenson number is of the most interest to me. He’s been able to avoid the heavy rough for most of the week and is second in the field in strokes gained: approach. If he can keep the putter going, then Stenson will be in the mix late on Sunday.

I’m sitting out the matchups for Sunday, too. The first half of the field shot four strokes better on average than the second half, in large part because of the wind and the course conditions. With the leaderboard thrown out of sorts, it’s tough to know who is playing well and who just got the better end of the draw. I have a couple of tournament matchups with Patrick Cantlay and Marc Leishman over Francesco Molinari, along with Russell Henley over Gary Woodland, that were completely turned around because of the conditions. So I’m just going to watch those finish up and keep my risk to a minimum.

Regarding my futures in play, I have the Finau ticket live at 130-1, but I’m taking a 50 percent cashout at 14-1 to cover a good chunk of my pre-tournament selections. (Sportsbook.ag offers the cashout option at the end of each round.)

This is the first time Finau will be in the final group on Sunday at a major, and we know that pressure can get to the best of them. We saw Justin Thomas shoot 75 in this spot a year ago, and he’s a far superior player to Finau.