Sobel’s Favorite WGC-Match Play Matchup Bets: Fade Favorites on Day 2?

Sobel’s Favorite WGC-Match Play Matchup Bets: Fade Favorites on Day 2? article feature image

Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tiger Woods.

So, we’re one day into the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship and the higher-ranked players own a record of 16-13-3.

That’s fairly inconclusive if we’re trying to make some kind of sweeping claim, but it does (somewhat) validate my thoughts for this week: Don’t bet any faves in matchups.

Going into Day 2, I’ve got three ‘dogs I’m looking at in individual matches — plus one bonus bet that breaks all the rules.

Charles Howell III over Paul Casey (+125)

This is a matchup of two of the nicest guys on the PGA Tour — and as a result, two of the better interview subjects — who could spend the afternoon conceding each other’s 4-footers.

At some point, Casey is going to run out of steam after Sunday’s victory at Innisbrook. This feels like the place to fade him, as CH3 is one of only three players who has reached the Round of 16 in each of the last two years — and he’s playing better golf now than during either of those.

Billy Horschel over Bubba Watson (Even)

There hasn’t been a more disparate contrast in styles since my YMCA hoops team tried to take on a bunch of ex-college jocks.

I give the abrasive Horschel an edge over the aloof Watson for the simple fact that his ball-striking has been solid — and Bubba doesn’t seem like he wants to be here. The defending champion, he recently said he wishes there wasn’t a match-play format event every year.

Maybe it was just coincidence, but it sure felt like bad karma when he left two shots in the bunker on his final hole against Kevin Na on Wednesday and lost.

How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Action Newsletter
Sign Up >
The top betting news and picks for all the big games delivered directly to your inbox daily.
Action Podcasts
Listen >
The award-winning Action Network Podcast covers all angles of betting and DFS from industry-leading pros.
Betting 101
Bet Smarter >
New to betting? No sweat. Check out our betting education hub, which ranges from beginner tips to advanced strategies.
Sports Betting Legalization
Predictions >
When will sports betting be legal in your state? Check our our projections for all 50 states.
Betting Calculators
Try Now >
Easily calculate your winnings for straight bets and parlays using American, Decimal, or Fractional odds.
Expert Picks
Best Bets >
See all of the bets Action Network experts are making in real-time, covering the big games and the hidden gems.

Top Stories