So, we’re one day into the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship and the higher-ranked players own a record of 16-13-3.
That’s fairly inconclusive if we’re trying to make some kind of sweeping claim, but it does (somewhat) validate my thoughts for this week: Don’t bet any faves in matchups.
Going into Day 2, I’ve got three ‘dogs I’m looking at in individual matches — plus one bonus bet that breaks all the rules.
Charles Howell III over Paul Casey (+125)
This is a matchup of two of the nicest guys on the PGA Tour — and as a result, two of the better interview subjects — who could spend the afternoon conceding each other’s 4-footers.
At some point, Casey is going to run out of steam after Sunday’s victory at Innisbrook. This feels like the place to fade him, as CH3 is one of only three players who has reached the Round of 16 in each of the last two years — and he’s playing better golf now than during either of those.
Billy Horschel over Bubba Watson (Even)
There hasn’t been a more disparate contrast in styles since my YMCA hoops team tried to take on a bunch of ex-college jocks.
I give the abrasive Horschel an edge over the aloof Watson for the simple fact that his ball-striking has been solid — and Bubba doesn’t seem like he wants to be here. The defending champion, he recently said he wishes there wasn’t a match-play format event every year.
Maybe it was just coincidence, but it sure felt like bad karma when he left two shots in the bunker on his final hole against Kevin Na on Wednesday and lost.
Kevin Kisner over Tony Finau (+140)
While I’m fading the most recent champion, I’m all-in on the guy he beat last year. Kisner lost a tough draw against Ian Poulter in the opening match, but I expect him to come back with some fire.
These are each a couple of guys who have played their share of individual money games over the years and know how to get after an opponent, but I want the grittiness of Kisner in this one.
Tiger Woods over Brandt Snedeker (-165)
I know, I wrote earlier that I’m only looking at ‘dogs in these matchups, but the bonus bet is too good to pass up.
As my buddy Ryan Lavner of Golf Channel tweeted, Woods and Snedeker have been paired together 13 different times on the PGA Tour — and Tiger owns a 12-0-1 record in those matchups. Make an exception to the rule here and take the favorite who tends to dominate his opponent.
