Sobel’s Favorite WGC-Match Play Matchup Bets: Fade Favorites on Day 2?

Sobel’s Favorite WGC-Match Play Matchup Bets: Fade Favorites on Day 2? article feature image
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Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tiger Woods.

So, we’re one day into the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship and the higher-ranked players own a record of 16-13-3.

That’s fairly inconclusive if we’re trying to make some kind of sweeping claim, but it does (somewhat) validate my thoughts for this week: Don’t bet any faves in matchups.

Going into Day 2, I’ve got three ‘dogs I’m looking at in individual matches — plus one bonus bet that breaks all the rules.

Charles Howell III over Paul Casey (+125)

This is a matchup of two of the nicest guys on the PGA Tour — and as a result, two of the better interview subjects — who could spend the afternoon conceding each other’s 4-footers.

At some point, Casey is going to run out of steam after Sunday’s victory at Innisbrook. This feels like the place to fade him, as CH3 is one of only three players who has reached the Round of 16 in each of the last two years — and he’s playing better golf now than during either of those.

Billy Horschel over Bubba Watson (Even)

There hasn’t been a more disparate contrast in styles since my YMCA hoops team tried to take on a bunch of ex-college jocks.

I give the abrasive Horschel an edge over the aloof Watson for the simple fact that his ball-striking has been solid — and Bubba doesn’t seem like he wants to be here. The defending champion, he recently said he wishes there wasn’t a match-play format event every year.

Maybe it was just coincidence, but it sure felt like bad karma when he left two shots in the bunker on his final hole against Kevin Na on Wednesday and lost.

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