Wyndham Championship Round 4 Betting Tips Using Strokes Gained
Photo credit: Chris Keane/Getty Images. Pictured: Doc Redman
After a few weeks of tough courses, we’re back to the days of 20-under winning a tournament. The leaderboard is tearing up Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina, and Si Woo Kim currently leads at 18-under after a very impressive 8-under round on the day.
Behind him tied for second place are Rob Oppenheim and Doc Redman at 16-under, and then in solo fourth is Billy Horschel at 15-under.
What should we expect Sunday at 2 p.m. ET when the leaders tee off? Let’s dive into this week’s data and take a look.
But first, a quick note on Strokes Gained, which I’ll mention frequently in this article.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly playing by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different — Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics…
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green are the most stable long-term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
Let’s start with the odds. Si Woo is an astounding +125 — nearly even money — to win the tournament at DraftKings at this point. The other guys below 10/1 are Redman (+450), Horschel (+600) and Oppenheim (+900).
As such, I’m skeptical to list Kim at all in this “buy” section — it’s really difficult to pay that price on a player like him, even with a two-shot lead. He’s in matchups against Oppenheim and is up to -200 on DraftKings. These are really high prices to pay for a volatile golfer.
But Kim is playing really well right now (and that’s why I wanted to highlight him here). On Saturday he gained a ridiculous 6.36 strokes tee-to-green, including 4.12 with his approach game. You’ll struggle to find many single rounds that good at any tournament.
As such, he should absolutely be a favorite — and while I normally sell the guys in the lead, especially in DFS considering they tend to play conservatively — I put Kim in this section just as a warning to not fade him. I think he’ll have to put up a good round on Sunday to win, but at this point that’s what I’m expecting.
I do think if someone is going to catch up, it’s going to be the youngster Redman, who probably has the best value in terms of odds right now. He’s second to only Kim in SG: Tee-to-Green this week, and he’s been pretty mediocre with the putter. On Saturday he was a little better with it but not ridiculously so — and still shot 7-under.
My third guy to keep an eye on is Zach Johnson, who is probably a couple shots too far back to win the thing but could be a worthwhile investment in matchups or DFS. He actually leads the field this week in SG: Approach, and on Saturday he was able to get his usually-solid putter going again. If he carries that momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised for him to get into that top-five area.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4
Roger Sloan was my first fade of the week after Thursday’s round, and I have no problems continuing to do so Sunday. He’s been almost exactly neutral tee-to-green on the week and has only gained strokes with his putter, which has come back down to earth after a smoking hot opening round. I see no reason why his performance Friday and Saturday won’t continue, which should continue to drop him down the board.
Oppenheim was also in that top spot on the leaderboard after Thursday, and he’s managed to hang around in this tournament. Unlike Sloan, the putter has stayed hot. But like Sloan, the rest of the game just hasn’t really been there.
He’s gained just 0.04 strokes with his approach this entire week; compare that to the marks of Si Woo (+1.75) and Redman (+1.53), against whom he’ll have to compete for the title. Those guys are just on different levels in terms of overall play, so I’ll fade the hot putter for the final 18 holes.
Tommy Fleetwood is my final fade, although he’s one of my favorite golfers in the field. He’s one of the most talented guys here and an absolutely brilliant golfer when he’s on.
Unfortunately, he doesn’t really seem to have it this week. He’s lost 0.88 strokes with his approach, which is usually a strength for the Englishman. In fact, he, along with Sloan and Rafa Cabrero-Bello, are the only golfers in the top-25 currently to have a negative SG: Tee-to-Green mark entering Sunday.
Now, Fleetwood is a guy who can turn that around at any point. But he’s also a much better golfer than this field, which consists of guys who are grinding for cards and to make a living. It’s a perhaps flawed narrative, but I wonder how much he’ll really care about battling himself into a top-10. Combine that with the play, and I think he’s a fade for Sunday.
Alright, enough talk. Here’s the data for all players for Saturday (and all rounds).
Strokes Gained Data for Every Player
(Note: The graph below is interactive. Click/hover to see data.)