Betting odds: Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics
- Dodgers: -113 (Rich Hill)
- Athletics: +103 (Sean Manaea)
- Over/Under: 8 (-111o/-109u)
- First pitch: 10:05 p.m. ET
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For the most part this season, strikeout prop overs have held more value than unders. This makes some sense, as the 8.47 strikeouts per team per game this year are once again an all-time record and about 1.5 more than the average at the beginning of the decade.
However, I like myself a juicy under when I have the chance to take one. There’s a chance tonight, as Sean Manaea and the A’s host the Dodgers.
Manaea is one of a couple pitchers who have frequently been popping up with under value and tonight is no different. The Dodgers’ projected lineup strikes out less than 22% of the time against lefties, one of the lower marks on tonight’s slate.
Meanwhile, Manaea’s 6.24 K/9 this year is the sixth-lowest out of 77 qualified starters in the league. BookMaker has set his over/under at 5 K’s, meaning he needs 6 for the over to cash (duh). Given that he hardly averages that number over nine innings, I reckon there’s some value on the under.
A couple other books have posted his total at 4.5 and FantasyLabs is projecting he will get just 3.2, more than a 30% difference.
Manaea has posted exactly five Ks in three straight games, but has topped five just four times in 23 starts this season. The under is a bit juiced up, but like Red at his parole hearing, I don’t give a sh*t.
The pick: Sean Manaea Under 5 strikeouts (-139) (BookMaker)
Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights