The Minnesota Twins host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 12, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my MLB betting preview and Diamondbacks vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Diamondbacks vs Twins Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Twins pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
My Diamondbacks vs Twins best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Twins Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Diamondbacks vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-8 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 5.18 / 5.61 | ERA / xERA | 2.84 / 3.80 |
| 4.19 / 3.96 | FIP / xFIP | 3.17 / 3.75 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 14.3 | K-BB% | 18.4 |
| 42.9 | GB% | 39.6 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 103 | Location+ | 113 |
Diamondbacks vs Twins Preview
The Diamondbacks and Twins offenses have not been that productive this month, ranking 19th and 16th, respectively, in wRC+.
Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has had a rough year, but has done much better in the last month, with only one really bad outing.
He is coming off an excellent start against the Red Sox, giving up just one run and six hits in six complete innings, while striking out seven batters.
He will oppose Pablo Lopez, who has been outstanding for the Twins. Lopez has allowed just two runs per game in his past two outings.
Combined with a weather angle provided by Bet Labs, the under is a valuable option for this game.
This system in MLB targets evening games where public interest in the over is muted, recent home team scoring has run slightly hot, and subtle environmental signals align with lower-scoring outcomes.
Games start between 7:00 and 11:59 PM ET, and the market over percentage sits below 50, suggesting minimal public pressure on inflated totals.
The home team has hit the over in just 20 to 67 of its last five games, and their previous outing landed modestly over the total by only 1.5 to 9 runs —indicators of recent scoring that may overstate offensive strength.
Meanwhile, the wind direction — whether blowing in, across the field, or neutral — paired with moderate temperatures between 26 and 74, introduces natural resistance to run scoring.
The home team is competitively priced on the moneyline and has a wide win rate window, providing no clear power imbalance that might inflate totals.
When layered together, these filters isolate a soft edge in a game environment where bettors overlook the under due to recency bias and lack of extreme public conviction.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Diamondbacks vs Twins Betting Trends
