For Friday, September 12, I'm on four MLB home run props: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Friday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, September 12
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 12
Gunnar Henderson (+675)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
I’m targeting the Baltimore Orioles’ left-handed bats in this matchup, as the spot is too strong to ignore and the betting odds remain inflated. Chris Bassitt has shown some improvement against lefties this season, but he’s still giving up 1.32 HR/9 to left-handed hitters and has been even worse since the All-Star break, allowing 1.5 HR/9 overall. This dome setting eliminates weather concerns, and the ballpark provides an added boost for lefty power.
Gunnar Henderson may be slumping on the surface, but his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is on the way. Given the matchup, his price today feels far too high. I project the true odds closer to +500, making this one of the best value player prop bets on the board.
Jackson Holliday (+950)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Chris Bassitt)
I’m backing Jackson Holliday and the Baltimore Orioles’ left-handed hitters in this spot, as the matchup sets up well and the odds are simply too high. Chris Bassitt has done a slightly better job limiting lefty power this year, but he’s still surrendering 1.32 HR/9 to left-handed bats. Since the All-Star break, the numbers have slipped even further, with a 1.5 HR/9 allowed overall.
The ballpark is favorable for left-handed power, and with this game being played under a dome, the weather won’t be a factor. Holliday’s talent and upside at the plate make him an intriguing target in this matchup, and I have his true odds projected closer to +750. That makes this one of the best MLB player prop values on the board for Saturday.
Pete Alonso (+375)
vs Rangers (SP: RHP Jacob deGrom)
Pete Alonso is a strong target in the home run prop market today, as the line feels far too high given the matchup. Jacob deGrom has only been an average opponent for right-handed power this season, posting a 1.03 HR/9 allowed to righties. However, his 40%+ fly ball rate suggests negative regression is coming, especially against elite sluggers.
Alonso remains one of MLB’s premier home run hitters, and his power profile matches up well here. I project his true odds closer to +320, making this one of the best value home run prop bets on the slate.
Juan Soto (+375)
vs Rangers (SP: RHP Jacob deGrom)
Juan Soto is one of the top targets in the home run prop market today, as the matchup against Jacob deGrom sets up perfectly. deGrom is no longer the dominant ace he once was and has struggled against left-handed power this season, giving up 1.52 HR/9 to lefties. The underlying metrics are even more concerning, with high fly-ball and hard contact rates that play right into Soto’s strengths.
Soto has been among the league’s most dangerous power hitters this year, and I project his true odds closer to +300. That makes this one of the best MLB betting values on the board for Friday.
