The Philadelphia Phillies host the Kansas City Royals on September 12, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSKC.
Find my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Royals vs Phillies Prediction
- Royals vs Phillies pick: Walker Buehler Under 3.5 Strikeouts
My Royals vs Phillies best bet is on Buehler to record under 3.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Phillies Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -120o / 100u | +115 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -120o / 100u | -140 |
Royals vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Lorenzen (KCR) | Stat | RHP Walker Buehler (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-10 | W-L | 7-7 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.6 |
| 4.63/4.53 | ERA /xERA | 5.45/5.70 |
| 4.53/4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 5.90/4.97 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.56 |
| 14.3% | K-BB% | 5.7 |
| 39.5% | GB% | 44.8% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 100 | Location+ | 92 |
Charlie Wright’s Royals vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Buehler will make his Philadelphia debut tonight after getting cut by Boston. He made a single Triple-A appearance with Lehigh Valley, tossing 3 inefficient innings on 78 pitches. He walked 3 and struck out 5. It didn’t seem like the Phillies had magically fixed him.
Buehler posted a brutal 7.7% SwStr% and a 25.1% CSW% across 23 appearances with the Boston. He had taken a big step back in his final season with the Dodgers, and the decline continued in Boston. Buehler has posted career-worst Stuff+ and Location+ numbers in back-to-back seasons. His strikeout rate has bottomed out at 16.5% this season.
No team is making more contact than the Royals right now. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league against RHP over the past 30 days at 17.2%. Miami is next at 18.7%, and no other team is below 19%. The projected lineup for the Royals has combined for a silly 16.4% K% across 3,257 plate appearances against RHP this season.
Pick: Walker Buehler Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150, Fanatics)
Royals vs Phillies Betting Trends
