The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on September 12, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
- Yankees vs Red Sox pick: F5 Over 4.5 -110 (Play to -120)
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bet is the first five innings over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 100o / -120u | -125 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 100o / -120u | +105 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Gil (NYY) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 10-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.31/4.89 | ERA /xERA | 3.38/4.96 |
| 4.13/5.57 | FIP / xFIP | 4.18/4.46 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 4.5% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 24.8% | GB% | 38.2% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 92 | Location+ | 100 |
Doug Ziefel’s Yankees vs Red Sox Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Bats Poised to Test Giolito
The Yankees head to Boston off a slobberknocker of a series against the Detroit Tigers, where they were outscored 23-3 over the first two games, but then bounced back with a 9-3 win yesterday.
It's clear that runs have come in bunches both for and against the Yankees lately, and that trend is in line to continue tonight as they face Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito. Giolito has been a pleasant surprise for Boston this season as he comes in with a 3.38 ERA on the season.
However, his xERA of 5.00 and xFIP of 4.45 tell a much different story. Giolito is due for a sizable regression, and this Yankee lineup is ready to deliver it as they lead the American League in wRC+ over the last month.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Aim to Capitalize on Gil's Control Issues
This series is as crucial as any have been in recent history for these two rivals, as just a half-game separates them in the standings. While the Yankees are primed to knock around Giolito, the Red Sox won't go down without a fight, as they should make Yankees starter Luis Gil work hard.
Gil has tremendous stuff, which has made him difficult to hit. However, he has very poor command of his stuff as his nearly 15 percent walk rate is amongst the highest in baseball. Boston is a relatively aggressive team, but the scouting report shows that Gil is likely to get himself in trouble if Boston can remain disciplined.
Look for the Red Sox to create traffic on the bases early and cash in against their arch rivals.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
We are going to see runs early and often in this one, as both starters are due for sizable regression and face lineups that can cash in with runners in scoring position.
Look for both teams to land big blows as this one goes over the total in the first five.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-110, bet365)
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
No play on the run line.
Over/Under
Take the first five innings over.
Yankees vs Red Sox Betting Trends
