MLB Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (Monday, August 10)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Betting Odds
|Diamondbacks Odds||+115 [Bet Now]|
|Rockies Odds||-129 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||11.5 [Bet Now]|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
The Diamondbacks and Rockies will meet at Coors Field on Monday night from opposite ends of the NL West standings.
As expected, Colorado (11-4 record) is favored over the Snakes (6-10), but at just around -130, they might not be favored heavily enough. In fact, two members of our baseball crew have labeled the Rockies as the best MLB bet of the night.
Check out why Collin Wilson and BJ Cunningham like the Rox tonight below.
The pick: Rockies Moneyline (-129) vs. Diamondbacks
Considering Robbie Ray’s recent performance and a mix of park factors at Coors Field, we can expect runs to be scored. Ray has been shelled so far this season to the tune of a 6.30 xFIP and a home-run-per-nine rate of 4.05. The Diamondbacks southpaw has not fared well in Coors, with a lifetime WHIP of 1.75. The Rockies are also one of the better teams against left-handed pitching, ranking 7th in wRC+ and line-drive percentage.
The Diamondbacks’ sticks have been down right lifeless. There are no splits that make the offense any better, with a wRC+ of 28th against right-handed pitching. The Snakes are third-lowest in BABIP and mid-tier in strikeouts. That regression will come around at some point during the season, but until then we continue to fade Arizona. Backing Jon Gray for the Rockies has always been a better decision at Coors. Gray has a better career xFIP at Coors than away from home and has given up just a single home run in 16 innings pitched so far this season.
We will continue to back Gray at home and fade a Diamondbacks team that has yet to play to its potential this season.
I agree with Collin on this pick.
Robbie Ray has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball to begin the season and going into Coors is a recipe for disaster. His biggest issue, as far as his pitch arsenal is concerned, is his fastball. He’s seen an uptick in velocity from 2019, but he’s allowed a .462 wOBA to opponents on his fastball. It’s his main pitch, too (throwing it 50% of the time), so he’s in for a world of hurt Monday against a Rockies lineup that ranks fourth against fastballs, with 11.4 weighted fastball runs so far in 2020.
Jon Gray hasn’t been great to begin the season either, posting a 5.01 xFIP in his first three starts. His biggest issue is that his secondary pitches are getting shelled. His changeup and sinker have allowed over a .370 wOBA to opponents and have yielded seven of his 12 hits so far in 2020. His fastball and slider, though, have been electric so far, holding opponents to a .132 batting average against on 169 pitches. The Diamondbacks offense has been the worst in baseball against fastballs so far in 2020, so I expect Gray to utilize his fastball a lot on Monday to shut down the D-backs lineup.
I think the Rockies are severely undervalued at home on Monday so I’ll be tailing Collin and taking the Rockies at -129 as well.
Pick: Rockies -129