MLB Expert Predictions for Saturday: How to Play the Over/Under in Indians-Twins

Evan Abrams: Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox

Tanner Roark (7-7, 4.14 ERA) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (6-9, 5.41 ERA)

• Athletics Moneyline: -170
• White Sox Moneyline: +155
• Over/Under: 9.5
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

The White Sox are 12 games below .500 this season and the Athletics are 16 games above .500. When looking at the game from that point of view, the line makes sense, but it is not that simple.

Chicago has been playing better as of late, going 5-3 in their last eight games, while scoring 5.3 runs per game in that span.

On Saturday, the White Sox start Reynaldo Lopez, who has shown some real flares of greatness when it comes to his strikeout ability. Recently his velocity has been on the rise and he should have his good stuff against an Athletics team he faced less than a month ago, striking out seven batters in six innings, allowing just three hits.

For Oakland, Tanner Roark is making his first road start after being traded from the Reds. Roark has seen a bit of a change in 2019 from his usual home/road splits, by allowing a higher slugging pct and more home runs per nine innings on the road than at home.

The White Sox are currently on a historically atrocious run for their offense at home, scoring just five total runs in their past five home games, including averaging just 1.6 runs per game in their past 10 home games (with a 1-9 record).

With Lopez on the mound and the White Sox a lofty +155 underdog, I think he gives Chicago a real chance to win and break the streak.

The PICK: White Sox +1.5 (+100) and White Sox +0.5 1st 5 Innings (+100)

Mark Gallant: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins

Adam Plutko (4-2, 4.55 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (12-5, 3.61 ERA)

• Indians Moneyline: +131
• Twins Moneyline: -145
• Over/Under: 10.5
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

It certainly feels like fall in Minnesota today (at least based on what the computer is telling me). The temperature is topping out at 70 degrees and winds will be blowing in towards home plate at Target Field.

Despite these suboptimal hitting conditions, the over/under for the Indians-Twins game has risen from 10 to 10.5. Too high for my liking.

We know that wind-in is good for the under to begin with, but there are a couple of other things that make this under an enticing choice. Wind-in unders when both teams have a .500 record or better have a 55.8% win rate.

When we look at games in July through the end of the season, that improves to 60.9%. Lastly, if we focus on just division games, it improves to a gaudy 67.9%, including a 5-1 record this year.

The PICK: Under 10.5