MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Prediction: 3 Best Bets for Dodgers vs. Rockies & Braves vs. Diamondbacks (Tuesday, September 21)
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Henry Ramos and Christian Walker
- There's plenty of action to be found on the Major League Baseball slate for Tuesday night.
- Our analysts have found angles on Pirates-Reds, Dodgers-Rockies and Braves-Diamondbacks.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our three favorite bets for tonight in MLB.
It's a full day of baseball with all 30 teams in action, starting with an afternoon game between the White Sox and Tigers and then 14 games under the lights.
Our analysts have found angles on three games tonight in which they see value: Pirates vs. Reds, Dodgers vs. Rockies and Braves vs. Diamondbacks.
Here are our staff's three best bets for Tuesday night in Major League Baseball.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 9:40 p.m. ET | |
Pirates vs. Reds
DJ James: Tyler Mahle heads to the hill after the Cincinnati Reds played a tight one against Pittsburgh on Monday. Mitch Keller goes for the Pirates, and he has been brutal this season with his splits indicating further poor results when facing left-handed hitters.
Joey Votto has kept this Cincinnati team afloat as of late with his .442 wOBA against righties this month. Jonathan India has helped do the same. Everyone else seems to be struggling at the moment. Keller features a fastball right around 94 mph, and he throws it almost 60% of the time.
The Reds should be prepared. On four-seam fastballs between 93 and 95 mph since August 1, Cincinnati has a collective .332 xwOBA against right-handed pitchers. Even when they have struggled the last couple of weeks, that number has remained .323 in September.
Given how Keller ranks in the third percentile in Average Exit Velocity Allowed and second percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage, this could wake up the currently slumping bats of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. Having Jesse Winker back in the lineup helps as well.
The Reds should be in good shape in the first five innings with the contributions from Mahle on the bump. Since he has the ability to limit hard contact (87.8 mph Average Exit Velocity), he should be able to handle a weak Pittsburgh team. The Pirates' 77 collective wRC+ since the beginning of August should not scare the Reds.
Take the Reds -1 (+105) in the first five innings and play to -1 (-130).
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Kenny Ducey: It never feels good to fade the Dodgers, particularly with Julio Urías pitching, but this is as good a spot as any.
The last time Urías faced the Rockies in Colorado, he exited in the sixth and allowed four earned runs on seven hits with a walk with just three strikeouts. The last time the Dodgers saw the Rockies, they dropped two of three at home right in the thick of the playoff race.
It may just be that Colorado has LA’s number, and coming off a crazy six-game run (on the road of all places) which saw it win five times, this is a fun team to bet on at the moment.
The Rockies own the league’s fourth-best OPS against lefties this year, and their strong home/road splits have been well-documented. I believe their offense should find some runs against Urías.
Speaking of home/road splits, Antonio Senzatela is sporting a shiny 3.89 ERA in 13 home starts compared to a 4.27 ERA on the road, and he’s been lights-out since the All-Star break with a 3.08 ERA.
He just shut out the Dodgers over seven innings four starts ago, and I think he should be in a great spot here along with Colorado’s offense. Bet this to +170.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
| 9:40 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: Jesse Chavez is serving as the opener for the Braves tonight after Touki Toussaint was relegated to the bullpen following recent struggles.
Atlanta's bullpen isn't in great shape, with a bottom-10 xFIP for the season and having used five arms in Monday night's win. With just a three-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East, Atlanta still has plenty to play for, but is in a rough spot here with an overburdened bullpen on the road.
We may very well still see Toussaint tonight — in relief — but between him, Chavez, and whichever other relievers are available, it's a prime spot for Arizona's offense to have a rare good day at the plate.
The Diamondbacks will send Luke Weaver to the mound. The 28-year-old isn't the most efficient starting pitcher out there, but should be able to navigate through five innings with minimal damage.
Arizona has arguably the worst bullpen in baseball, so I'll stay away from the full-game moneyline here and take the Diamondbacks first five innings at +145 and play to +140.
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