Thursday MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Our 2 Favorite Bets, Including Orioles vs. Yankees & Astros vs. Rangers (Sept. 16)
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas pitcher Glenn Otto and catcher Jose Trevino.
- Orioles vs. Yankees and Astros vs. Rangers highlight Thursday's slate in Major League Baseball action.
- Our analysts have found betting angles on both games.
- Continue reading below for our staff's best bets on the MLB slate.
Thursday is Getaway Day in Major League Baseball, and there’s a whole bunch of day games at our disposal.
Two of our analysts have found angles on games, both starting in the late afternoon or evening: Yankees vs. Orioles and Astros vs. Rangers.
Here are our two best bets for Thursday in Major League Baseball.
MLB Odds & Picks
|8:05 p.m. ET|
Yankees vs. Orioles
DJ James: The last time Baltimore won a series against the New York Yankees this season, Chris Ellis matched up with Jordan Montgomery. That’s the matchup tonight, and the Orioles have been tearing the cover off of the ball when facing southpaws. Queue another bet for the Birds.
The Orioles have eight hitters with a wRC+ of 100 or better against lefties since August 20. When hitting left-handers who primarily throw sinkers (i.e. Montgomery), the Orioles feature a .355 xwOBA as a team since August 1. This was the angle the last time Ellis faced Montgomery, and the Orioles hit on the moneyline in that game.
Ellis has been solid this season for the Orioles, too. He can throw at least five innings and has not allowed more than three runs in any appearance. His WHIP remains 1.15, so he should be able to control the zone.
They do need to figure out who will throw out of the bullpen, once Ellis is done for the day, but if Connor Greene, Cole Sulser or Tyler Wells can pitch after throwing on Wednesday night, they are worth the bet.
Take the adjusted Orioles’ run line at +2.5 (-114). You can play this to +2.0 (-125). They should be able to cover this number, and feel free to take the moneyline if you are feeling risky.
Astros vs. Rangers
|8:05 p.m. ET|
Collin Whitchurch: You might be asking yourself, “Who on Earth is Glenn Otto?”
I don’t blame you. There’s not much of a reason to pay attention to the Texas Rangers right now, particularly if you don’t reside in the greater-DFW area.
Otto came to Texas via the deadline deal that sent Joey Gallo to the Yankees, and the 2017 fifth-round pick and Spring, Texas, native made his major-league debut a month later, on August 27 against these very same Astros. He tossed five shutout innings, allowed just two hits with no walks and seven strikeouts.
Otto’s ERA is ghastly, but that’s because he was lit up by the Athletics his last time out, giving up eight earned in just 3 1/3 innings. He’s shown remarkable swing-and-miss stuff, though, with 16 strikeouts against just two walks in 13 innings across three starts.
The Astros remain the toughest team in baseball to strike out, which is what made Otto’s debut performance against them so impressive. More so than the raw strikeout total is the frequency with which hitters are swinging and missing. Even in his bad start against Oakland, hitters whiffed on 12 of the 78 pitches he threw.
I don’t expect Otto to perform as well today as he did his first time out against Houston, but I do think he’ll continue to miss bats, which is why I like the over on his strikeout total at 4.5. Bet the over at +110 and do so down to +100.
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