MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Rockies vs. Dodgers Betting Preview (Wednesday, April 14)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin May #85 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning of Game One of the National League Divisional Series at Globe Life Field on October 06, 2020 in Arlington, Texas.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds
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The defending World Series champion Dodgers were projected to be a historically good team again this season. They are looking the part so far with a 9-2 start.
Meanwhile, the Rockies traded their franchise superstar in Nolan Arenado during the offseason, and have started just 3-8.
These two teams opened the season with a four-game set, and the Rockies actually came away with an 8-5 win on Opening Day before Los Angeles took the next three.
Last night, the Dodgers overpowered the Rockies to a 7-0 win behind four home runs and a dominant outing from Trevor Bauer.
Rockies: Is Gray Finding His Form?
The Rockies will send right-hander Jon Gray to the bump Wednesday night. The 6-foot-4 Gray was just horrific last season, going 2-4 in eight starts with a 6.69 ERA and just a 5.08 K/9, both the worst of his career by far. The underlying metrics have always liked Gray thanks to his strikeout upside, but he’s always underachieved a bit.
In two starts this year, Gray has thrown 11 2/3 innings and allowed just six hits and two runs, and has struck out 12 batters. One of those starts game against the Dodgers, when he struck out seven and allowed one run in five innings.
Offensively, the Rockies are carried by their middle infield, second baseman Ryan McMahon and shortstop Trevor Story. McMahon is off to a scorching start, with five home runs and nine RBI’s through 11 games. He has broken out this year with a wOBA of .427 and wRC+ of 154.
Just like last season, Colorado has again struggled against right handed pitching. They are hitting just .196 against righties, 26th in the league, and are 29th in on-base percentage and 27th in wRC+.
Nowhere to Hide from Dodgers Lineup
The Dodgers will counter with an even taller right-handed pitcher as 6-foot-6 Dustin May will get the ball tonight. In 10 starts last year, May had a 2.57 ERA over 56 innings. In his first start this season, he shutout the Athletics over six innings, allowing just two hits with eight strikeouts.
May’s strategy is simple… just blow it by you. Big Red throws his fastball 68.2% of the time and he averages 99.3 miles per hour, the highest in the league for a starting pitcher.
Los Angeles will be without 2019 MVP, Cody Bellinger who is out with a calf injury. I guess they will just have to rely on 2018 MVP, Mookie Betts, World Series MVP Corey Seager, and the plethora of other stars in this lineup. Max Muncy is batting .400 and Justin Turner sits at .378 on the season. There is just nowhere to hide with this Dodgers lineup.
The Dodgers hit most pitchers extremely well, but they absolutely mash right-handed pitching. Last season LA ranked top 10 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA and led the league in wRC+ against right handers. So far in 2021, they rank first in on-base percentage, wOBA, wRC+, and are second in batting average vs RHP.
As good as the Dodgers have hit right-handed pitching all season, Gray’s stuff looks much improved and he has thrown his slider and changeup much better than last season. He has been the Rockies best pitcher this season and they will need him to be sharp.
May looked dominant in his first start of the season and should have no problem blowing his fastball by a Rockies lineup that is brutal against right-handing pitching.
The under is 1-8 in Rockies game so far this season and 2-7 in Dodgers games. The Rockies have been shutout in two straight games, and while you always run the risk of LA hitting this number by themselves, I believe the under is the best play in this game.
Pick: Under 8 (-110) (Would play to -125)