The Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets on June 29, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on WPIX.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Mets vs Pirates Prediction
- Mets vs Pirates picks: Under 9.5
My Mets vs Pirates best bet is Under 9.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Pirates Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -145 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 9.5 100o / -120u | +120 |
Mets vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| Frankie Montas (NYM) | Stat | Mike Burrows (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 0.00/5.14 | ERA /xERA | 4.45/4.42 |
| 2.89/4.95 | FIP / xFIP | 4.77/3.90 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 10 | K-BB% | 16 |
| 25 | GB% | 35.6 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 87 | Location+ | 101 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB betting system focuses on Sunday games where the home team is coming off one or two consecutive overs, signaling recent offensive outperformance or inflated run totals. Sundays typically mark the end of a series and are often played as early-day games, frequently following a Saturday night matchup.
These conditions create a perfect storm for regression: key hitters are more likely to rest, lineups become inconsistent, and starting pitchers benefit from increased familiarity with opposing batters. When the opening total falls between 8 and 9.5 runs, the number is high enough to offer strong value on the under.
With fatigue setting in at the end of the week and many teams opting to give players a day off, this setup has historically delivered positive ROI by capitalizing on overlooked scoring drops in Sunday finales.
Pick: Under 9.5
Moneyline
There is no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
There is no play on the run line.
Over/Under
Take the under in this afternoon's series finale.
