The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 29, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSO.
These teams split the first two games and will decide the series winner today. Ranger Suarez will toe the rubber for the Phillies, while Spencer Strider will do it for the Braves.
Find our MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Phillies vs Braves Prediction
- Phillies vs Braves picks: Under 8.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Our Phillies vs Braves best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Phillies vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Spencer Strider (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.08/2.56 | ERA /xERA | 4.07/3.88 |
| 2.86/3.42 | FIP / xFIP | 3.62/3.61 |
| 1.03 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 16.8 | K-BB% | 20.7 |
| 53.1 | GB% | 34.0 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 113 | Location+ | 92 |
Phillies vs Braves Preview
The Phillies will have Ranger Suarez on the mound today, which is already an advantage since the Braves do worse against left-handed pitching, ranking 20th in the majors in run production with 85 wRC+.
Suarez is on a roll. He has nine straight quality starts and has allowed two runs or less in seven outings in a row. The Philadelphia lefty does better on the road, with a 1.02 ERA compared to his 3.34 at home.
Meanwhile, the Phillies do not like right-handers very much as they are 12th in run production against them, with 105 wRC+, compared to their 11th place overall.
Atlanta's starter, Spencer Strider, also has very favorable splits for this game. His 3.18 ERA at home is much better than his 4.68 on the road.
In day games, the right-hander is even better, posting a 2.65 ERA this season, while having 5.04 at night.
Both offenses have dipped in June. Atlanta ranks 25th in wRC+ (89) and average (.236), and Philadelphia is sitting at 18th in wRC+, with 97.
These numbers bode well for the under recommendation, which aligns with our Bet Labs – Steam Unders with Low OU Support system for this game.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB betting system, titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support", is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular season games from 2019 to 2025, where the closing total lands between 8 and 10, sweet spots for scoring volatility. It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under.
This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between those two figures is meaningful but not extreme. To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends. Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, backed by a high sample size and strong return on investment.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115, BetMGM)
