The Cincinnati Reds host the San Diego Padres on June 29, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Padres vs Reds Prediction
- Padres vs Reds picks: Under 9
My Padres vs Reds best bet is Under 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Reds Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -120o / 100u | -130 |
Padres vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| Stephen Kolek (SDP) | Stat | Nick Lodolo (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 5-5 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.95/4.36 | ERA /xERA | 3.63/4.07 |
| 4.07/4.33 | FIP / xFIP | 3.99/3.95 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 9.1 | K-BB% | 16.7 |
| 50 | GB% | 43.9 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
Padres vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
The "Steam Unders with Low OU Support" system targets regular-season MLB games where sharp action pushes the total down, but public bettors continue to back the over, creating a profitable mismatch. This strategy focuses on games from 2019 to 2025 where the closing total falls between 8 and 10 runs, a key range for scoring swings.
It isolates matchups where the over/under line drops significantly from open to close, indicating strong smart money on the under, while only a small percentage of bets (often under 30%) support it. This sharp vs. public gap reveals hidden value, especially when the difference is notable but not extreme.
To filter out noise, the system includes only games played in mild to warm temperatures—avoiding extremes that skew totals—and requires both teams to show recent results near the posted number, eliminating outlier streaks.
By identifying low-profile unders that attract sharp steam but little public support, this model consistently finds undervalued totals in realistic scoring environments, delivering long-term ROI across a large sample size.
This system has hit at 62 percent this season, delivering a 19% ROI.
Pick: Under 9
Moneyline
There is no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
There is no value on the run line.
Over/Under
Take the under in Padres vs. Reds.
