The Milwaukee Brewers host the Colorado Rockies on June 29, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on COLR.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rockies vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rockies vs Brewers Prediction
- Rockies vs Brewers picks: Under 8.5 (-110 ESPN BET)
My Rockies vs Brewers best bet is TK PICK TK. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Brewers Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +225 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
Rockies vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP German Marquez (COL) | Stat | RHP Chad Patrick (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-9 | W-L | 3-7 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 5.79/ 4.91 | ERA /xERA | 3.72/ 4.05 |
| 4.11/ 4.66 | FIP / xFIP | 3.56/ 4.07 |
| 1.64 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 8.8% | K-BB% | 16.1% |
| 39.8% | GB% | 27.7% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 99 | Location+ | 98 |
Rockies vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
We’re going right back to the well after cashing the under last night in Game 2 of this series. Once again, the setup is too sharp to ignore: the public is hammering the over, the line has dropped to 8.5, and the Rockies continue to spiral—entering tonight on a five-game losing streak. Brewers starter Chad Patrick (3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) has been a consistent presence, and he draws a matchup nearly identical to yesterday’s, when Quinn Priester delivered a dominant shutout performance.
Just like yesterday, public money is overwhelmingly on the over—yet the total has dropped. At the time of writing, only 18% of bets and 20% of dollars are backing the under, with the line continuing to fall. Historically, that’s a signal worth respecting:
Unders with <25% of bets & line drop:
104-76-12 (58%), 11% ROIWhen total is 8 or higher: 56-37-5 (60%), 16% ROI
When total is 8.5+: 30-17-5 (64%), 22% ROI
(Data: Action Labs)
But this isn’t just about market movement. This game triggers four high-performing betting systems, with each filter contributing to a consistent, data-driven edge.
System 1: Non-Division Heavy Home Favorites Off an Under
Season: 20-12-1 (63%), ROI: 20%
All-Time: 527-348-43 (60.2%), ROI: 16%
Key Parameters:
Home favorite of -270 to -180
Previous game total margin between -8.5 and -1 (i.e., it went under by 1+ runs)
Game is non-divisional
Wind between 0–12 mph, temp 56–107°F
Wind direction is not blowing out
Why it works: These setups create overreaction spots. The books inflate the total slightly, expecting offensive regression, but sharp bettors fade that move. Add in the non-division factor—where motivation and familiarity are lower—and the under tends to hold strong.
System 2: Game 3 or 4 Unders, Wind Neutral, SP Must Have Decent Metrics
Season: 26-8-2 (76%), ROI: 44%
All-Time: 472-315-39 (60%), ROI: 15%
Key Parameters:
Series game is #3 or #4
Home pitcher’s WHIP between 1.15–2.05
Home pitcher’s strikeout rate between 20%–53%
Home team win % between 36%���65%
Wind speed 0–15 mph, not blowing out
Why it works: Late-series games tend to trend lower as bullpens stabilize and teams adjust. This system ensures the starter isn’t a liability (no blowup risk) and that weather conditions aren’t pushing the ball out. It’s been our most profitable under the system this season.
System 3: Heavy Home Favorites That Consistently Go Under (Fair Weather)
Season: 105-54-4 (66%), ROI: 26%
All-Time: 230-125-18 (64.8%), ROI: 23%
Key Parameters:
Home favorites priced between -380 and -135
Home team hits the over less than 45% of the time
League average O/U % for this matchup below 50%
Game number between 2 and 110
Wind speed 2–9 mph, not blowing out
Applies to regular season only (2023–2025)
Why it works: These are games where the market inflates the total based on team strength, not performance. When a team is routinely winning, but not scoring big, the under holds strong—especially when the books keep setting high numbers due to inflated win probability.
System 4: Mid-Season Unders for Winning Home Teams Off Blowout Wins
Season: 4-4 (50%)
All-Time: 359-259-35 (58%), ROI: 12%
Key Parameters:
Game # between 70 and 141
Home team won last game by 5+ runs
Team is 75–100% win rate in last 4 games
Series game # is 2 or 3
Total between 8 and 11
Temperature 56–90°F
Why it works: Blowouts often lead to regression. Lineups change, urgency drops, and opponents make adjustments. When the total remains high despite a dominant prior win, sharp value often falls on the under.
Conclusion
- Four systems. All pointing in the same direction.
- Public is chasing the over. Sharp money fading it.
- Weather neutral. Pitching stable. Rockies offense? Still missing.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 ESPN BET)
Moneyline
I don't see value on either side of the Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from run line bets
Over/Under
As mentioned, I like Under 8.5 for this game.
Rockies vs Brewers Betting Trends
Rockies vs Brewers starts at 2:10 p.m. EDT on Sunday, live from American Family Field. The game will be broadcast on COLR.
