Rockies vs. Giants MLB Odds & Picks: Trends Point to Early Success for Colorado (Monday, April 26)

Rockies vs. Giants MLB Odds & Picks: Trends Point to Early Success for Colorado (Monday, April 26) article feature image
Credit:

AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan McMahon (24) of the Colorado Rockies.

  • The Colorado Rockies look to pick up their first road win in a division matchup against the San Francisco Giants on Monday.
  • Both starting pitchers could end up canceling each other out, so Michael Arinze explains why he's betting the Rockies' bats to have an early edge Monday night.

Rockies vs. Giants Odds

Rockies Odds +140
Giants Odds -165
Over/Under 7.5
Time 9:45 p.m. ET
TV MLBTV
Odds as of Monday and via BetMGM.

After a 5-3 homestand, the Colorado Rockies embark on a seven-game road trip starting with the Giants in San Francisco. This will be the second meeting this season between the two teams as the Giants swept the Rockies in a three-game series earlier this season.

The Rockies will look to return the favor this time around, but they’ll first need to pick up their first victory on the road. At 0-6, the Rockies remain the only team in the league that’s yet to win a game away from home.

The Giants trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by just one game in the division, however, a closer look at San Francisco’s Pythagorean expectation suggests that they’ve actually over-performed in terms of wins and could experience some regression moving forward.

Let’s dig into this matchup to see if that projected regression could lead to the first road win for the Rockies.

Colorado Rockies

Colorado will send left-hander Austin Gomber to the mound for his fifth start of the season. Gomber, a highly regarded pitcher in the St. Louis Cardinals’ organization, was traded to the Rockies as part of the Nolan Arenado deal. The left-hander hasn’t pitched more than 126 innings in the big leagues, but he’s 8-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.37 WHIP for his career. This season, he’s 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

The first thing that jumps out to me about Gomber’s advanced stats is his 6.33 BB/9 ratio. That’s always a definite red flag for me, but after reviewing his game logs, that number is a bit skewed considering he allowed seven walks in three innings to the Dodgers in his first start of the season. Facing the Dodgers lineup can bring the worst out of even the best pitchers in the league, let alone a third-year pitcher.

Gomber seems to have gotten his walks under control as he hasn’t allowed more than two in each of his past two starts. Both of those outings also happened to be quality starts, with one of them resulting in a no-decision his second time around against the Dodgers.

There shouldn’t be any surprises for Gomber pitching at Oracle Park. In his second start this season, he lasted 6 1/3 innings and allowed two earned runs. The Giants lineup has 21 plate appearances against him but has only generated a .062 AVG / .286 OBP / .062 SLG slash line.


San Francisco Giants

Anthony DeSclafani will get the start for the Giants as he looks to bounce back from his shortest start of the season. He was withdrawn after allowing three runs in four innings to the Phillies. Though, it’s unclear if his early hook was performance-based, especially when you consider that his pitch count was only up to 68 at the time.

DeSclafani could end up being one of the steals of the year. He signed a one-year six-million-dollar deal after spending five seasons in Cincinnati. Last year, in seven starts and nine appearances, DeSclafani went 1-2 with a 7.22 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Those numbers pale compared to his more steady career numbers of 38-39 with a 4.23 ERA. This season, DeSclafani is off to a good start as he’s 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

There’s not much to pick apart in his numbers as he has a 9.0 K/9 ratio, 2.57 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, and his GB/FB is 1.94. One positive for Colorado backers is that their lineup does have a better slash line (.283 AVG / .320 OBP / .413 SLG) against DeSclafani than the Giants do against Gomber.

However, the veteran right-hander already faced the Rockies this season, and he breezed through six shutout innings en route to a 4-0 victory.

It looks like we’ll have to keep digging if we’re to find a worthwhile angle to fade DeSclafani in this spot.

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Rockies-Giants Pick

One way to approach this game is by simply assessing it based on value instead of a predictive outcome.

As of this writing, the Giants are as high as a -180 favorite in this game, but as I alluded to earlier, their win-loss record suggests that they may be overvalued and could be due for some regression.

The Giants have scored 80 runs this season and allowed 70. Their expected win percentage is closer to .561 instead of .636, which is where it’s currently. Conversely, Colorado has actually underperformed as their win percentage should be closer to .528 instead of at .381, which is where it is today. With 100 runs scored this season, Colorado is averaging 4.76 runs per game, whereas San Francisco is averaging 3.64 per game.

While the Rockies often struggled on the road against the Giants, the double-digit winds blowing out to center field could make Oracle Park play a bit smaller and perhaps make them feel more like they’re playing at Coors Field.

There’s no question that Colorado is the hotter team coming in, as evidenced by their 12-run barrage against the Phillies on Sunday.

While I’m not sure if they can find their way to a victory in a park where they’ve struggled historically (62-93), this is probably as good a spot you’ll find for them to do so and notch their first road win of the season.

I think both pitchers can cancel each other out, but with Colorado being such a heavy underdog, I think they’re worth a look in the first five innings.

In Colorado’s past eight games, they’re 6-2 on the first five innings run line (+4.4 units) and 4-1-3 (38.2% ROI) if you play them on the money line.

I prefer to split my wagers evenly between those options, and after line shopping, I’ll look to place my action at BetMGM, which has the best five-inning price on the board with a +135 ML and -115 (+0.5) RL.

Pick: Rockies F5 ML +135 (.5u) | Rockies F5 RL+0.5 -115 (.5u)

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