The Kansas City Royals (24-17) host the Boston Red Sox (21-20) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN and FanDuel Kansas City.
Find my Red Sox vs Royals prediction below, as well as Sunday probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Red Sox vs Royals Prediction
- Red Sox vs Royals picks: Lucas Giolito Under 4.5 Strikeouts
My Red Sox vs Royals best bet for Sunday is Lucas Giolito to go under 4.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Royals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +168 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -200 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
Red Sox vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Seth Lugo (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 8.38 / 5.61 | ERA /xERA | 2.84 / 4.35 |
| 4.88 / 4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 4.40 / 4.20 |
| 1.86 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 11% |
| 42.4% | GB% | 40.7% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 104 | Location+ | 96 |
Charlie Wright’s Red Sox vs Royals Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Concerns for Giolito
Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito had a decent start in his first appearance since elbow surgery — then he was destroyed in his second start against Texas, allowing six earned runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 innings.
The big concern was his fastball velocity in that outing against the Rangers. Giolito came out of the gates averaging 93.3 mph on his fastball — that's in line with where he was in 2023 (93.1 mph), although he struggled mightily that season. He was sitting at 94+ mph in the good years.
Last time out against the Rangers, Giolito's fastball was down at 91.6 mph.
Even more concerning might be the pitch mix. Giolito is basically only throwing fastball and changeups. He's thrown a total of nine sliders and curveballs so far.
Fastballs and changeups make up nearly 95% of his arsenal through two starts. If the elbow surgery is limiting his repertoire, whether because of discomfort or lack of trust, he might be in trouble.
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Royals are the toughest strikeout matchup in the league for right-handed pitchers. They have the lowest K% vs. RHP over the past 30 days.
Today's projected lineup has combined for a tiny 17.6% K% against righties this season.
The Royals have also gotten the bats going recently after a slow start. They're slightly above league average in wRC+ vs. RHP over the past month.
Pick: Lucas Giolito Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140; DraftKings)
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline for this series finale.
Run Line (Spread)
I also have no pick for either side of the run line.
Over/Under
I have no pick on the game total.
