The Seattle Mariners (22-15) host the Toronto Blue Jays (18-20) on Saturday, May 10, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
With two shaky starters in Bowden Francis and Logan Evans taking the ball in Seattle, we'll dive into why the Mariners will continue raking — and how Toronto can help us get over the total.
Find my Blue Jays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, Pick
- Blue Jays vs Mariners pick: Over 8.5 (-102) | Play to Over 9 (-105)
My Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet for Saturday is the game total to go over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +122 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bowden Francis (TOR) | Stat | RHP Logan Evans (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | W-L | 1-1 |
| -0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 5.66/6.92 | ERA /xERA | 7.20/4.10 |
| 6.79/4.64 | FIP / xFIP | 4.31/4.70 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 1.80 |
| 10.1% | K-BB% | 6.5% |
| 35.7% | GB% | 39.4% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 103 | Location+ | 96 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Preview, Prediction
Blue Jays Betting Preview
Bowden Francis looked like one of the worst pitchers in baseball for the first month of last year until a sudden and stunning turnaround saw him finish out the season with a 3.30 ERA. He's seemed to fall right back into his old ways thus far in 2025, posting a 5.66 ERA through seven starts with few redeeming qualities.
Francis has been able to limit walks, but it hasn't really made an impact given he's just thrown more strikes, which are extremely hittable. He's allowed a home run in all but two of his starts, giving up a whopping five to the Boston Red Sox a couple of turns ago, and he carries an insanely high .575 Expected Slugging Percentage into this one next to a .319 xBA.
The right-hander continues pitching to fly balls, and while his curveball has been rocked, his splitter and four-seamer have carried rather large deltas between the actual and expected results — fueling speculation that Francis could be in store for even worse outings.
Seattle has been exceptional at the dish this season, and with its strength coming in the power department, it's no surprise it's ranked seventh in OPS against fly-ball pitchers. That's five spots higher than the reverse split.
Mariners Betting Preview
Logan Evans has been pushed into a starting role a bit earlier than expected due to some injuries to the Mariners rotation, and he remains a great unknown as he prepares for his third big-league outing. He made it through five innings of two-run ball against the Miami Marlins in his debut before surrendering six runs on 11 hits over five to the Texas Rangers, and the constant here seems to be baserunners.
Evans has now walked five in his ten frames at this level, and while that's a bit of a surprise compared to his 3.7% walk rate down in Triple-A this season, it's not exactly unheard of. In a larger sample of 107 innings in Double-A last season, he posted a poor 9.4% walk rate — and he would seem to be a contact-oriented arm carrying high ground-ball rates through the minors and unassuming strikeout rates under 22% in the past two seasons.
It seems safe to say that Evans will put runners on here, whether it be on balls or a barrage of singles. The good news is that he's held opponents to a .382 xSLG in the early going, and if he can capitalize on a weak Toronto offense, he may have a chance of turning in another solid start.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a good matchup in theory for the free-swinging Blue Jays, who lack power and attempt to win games on contact. Their strikeout and walk numbers are rather low, but one thing that's a bit surprising is that their numbers against fly-ball pitchers actually outpace their numbers against ground-ballers. When you filter by power and finesse pitchers, the gap is just as large.
I want to play the Over here, but it comes down to whether or not you trust Toronto to rack up enough hits to make a difference. They're hitting over .250 in the last two weeks and sit an acceptable 17th when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position, and while the ground-ball/fly-ball splits aren't what we want I'm still willing to bet that this is a small sample and that the theoretically-strong matchup will come to fruition.
On the other side of the coin, this is just about as bad a spot for Francis as you can find given Seattle's deep supply of power, and it would take an unforeseen turnaround for the right-hander to survive this one. Nothing about his start to the year would indicate he's going to fare well, and with that, we have to play the Over. It should only take a few from Toronto to get us there.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-102)
Moneyline
The sharp money is hitting Seattle here, but with a rocky rookie making his third start, I'm much more inclined to play the total. Seattle would certainly be my preferred side, however.
Run Line (Spread)
The Mariners are now just 4-6 to the run line in their last ten games and have covered nine of 23 times as favorites. Toronto is 14-8 as underdogs and 6-4 in its last ten.
Over/Under
A former Under machine, the Mariners have now gone 22-13-2 to the Over in the early going and it's hit in eight of their last ten games. Toronto has also cashed the Over in eight of its last ten.
