The New York Mets host the Chicago Cubs on May 10, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Cubs vs Mets Prediction
- Cubs vs Mets picks: Under 8.5
My Cubs vs Mets best bet is on the Under. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Cubs vs Mets Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -160 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-150 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +135 |
Doug Ziefel's Cubs vs Mets Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Last night, the Chicago Cubs were contained in the series opener, mustering just two runs. That type of output is a surprise from an excellent lineup this season.
The Cubs are a deep lineup with experience and discipline, but have not made elite levels of hard contact. So, while they put the ball in play quite a bit, their high flyball rate can be a detriment, as many balls hang up too long to be caught.
I expect that to happen tonight as they face Tylor Megill at Citi Field. Megill has been solid for the Mets, pitching to a 2.50 ERA and holding a 1.17 WHIP through seven starts. Megill has no strong tendencies regarding the type of contact he allows, but he has been tough to square up as he ranks in the 75th percentile in barrel rate allowed.
With the Cubs holding the fifth-highest flyball rate, the sixth-lowest whiff rate, and the wind blowing hard from left to right tonight, look for many of the Cubs' flyballs to be knocked down, resulting in another quite offensive night.
New York Mets Betting Preview
Speaking of flyballs, the Mets had plenty of them last night, and a number of them left the yard. That power level is an outlier performance from a Mets lineup that makes loads of loud contact, but most of it is typically on the ground.
It's safe to say the Mets' lineup is expected to regress tonight, and that will only be amplified by the Cubs' pitching. Chicago is opting for a bullpen game, but there are two likely guys to take the ball.
The first is opener Brad Keller. Keller has been nasty, ranking in the top 15 percent in every predictive category on Statcast. He has barely allowed hard contact, and over 58% of contact against him has been on the ground.
After Keller, the questions begin. Cubs No. 3-ranked prospect Cade Horton is expected to make his MLB debut. Oddly, they opt to use him out of the bullpen when he's been a starter for his entire professional career.
Horton is a hard-throwing right-hander dominating at Triple-A, posting a 1.24 ERA through six starts. However, his length and success in this game are a big unknown.
If he gets in trouble, the rest of the Cubs' bullpen behind him has been average, and many arms are due for a bit of positive regression. Their collective ERA rank of 22nd does not accurately portray how they've pitched this season.
Cubs vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
This series features two of the best lineups in all of baseball, but what makes each team great is not the bats, but their pitching depth. The Cubs' depth will be tested this afternoon, but with Cade Horton being a wild card out of the pen, he could turn into a significant edge.
Conversely, the Cubs will be hampered by the conditions in Flushing, Queens tonight. The winds are likely to impact many of their flyballs and should allow Megill to succeed as he's only allowed two homers this season.
Take the under in Game 2 of this series.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline
I am avoiding the moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
I am avoiding the run line
Over/Under
I am taking the under.
