Brewers vs. Padres MLB Odds & Picks: Back Musgrove in Potential Pitchers’ Duel (Monday, April 19)
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (#44).
- Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres play host to the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night.
- Both Musgrove and his pitching combatant Brandon Woodruff have performed better than their records suggest. But which of the two should you back at Petco Park?
- Below, Michael Arinze breaks down the odds and matchup to deliver his analysis and pick for Padres vs. Brewers.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-118 / -104)|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday at 11 a.m. ET and via DraftKings.|
The Milwaukee Brewers head to San Diego on a six-game road trip after dropping their weekend series to the Pirates. They’ll face a Padres team that recently broke a tied game with three runs in the eighth inning to avoid a sweep by the Dodgers.
Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Milwaukee, and Joe Musgrove will oppose him for the Padres.
Musgrove has pitched well at Petco Park — even as a member of the visiting team. Part of his success may be due to his comfort in the surroundings, given that he’s a San Diego native.
Let’s dive into that and much more as we preview the opening game of this series.
Brandon Woodruff has yet to factor in a decision this season. In 17 innings of work, he’s 0-0 with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. However, Woodruff’s 1.63 FIP suggests that he’s actually pitched even better than that. A glance at his advanced numbers shows a K/9 ratio over 10.0, a BB/9 ratio of 1.59, and a 1.73 GB/FB ratio. He’s also yet to allow a home run this season.
Perhaps none of this should come as a surprise: After all, Woodruff has quickly become one of the best pitchers in the National League over the last few seasons. His career record is 19-11 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Even his career 3.22 FIP suggests that he’s pitched better than his traditional ERA.
However, one place where it hasn’t necessarily worked out for Woodruff is pitching at Petco Park. In his two appearances — one of which was a start — Woodruff reports a 0-1 record, 5.63 ERA and 1.375 WHIP.
This Padres team is resoundingly better than the ones he faced in the past. Their current lineup has only 24 at-bats against him, but their .292 AVG / .346 OBP / .417 SLG slash line is still more than respectable.
San Diego Padres
A change of scenery could make all the difference in Joe Musgrove’s 2021 campaign. The Padres became his third team in six years following an offseason trade with the Pirates.
His last two seasons in Pittsburgh couldn’t have been easy. The Pirates finished with the second-worst record (69-83) in the National League in 2019 and the worst record (19-41) in baseball the following year.
Despite that, Musgrove still managed to deliver a solid outing almost every fifth day.
Last year, he made eight starts and went 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA. Like Woodruff, Musgrove’s career FIP (3.82) that has also outperformed his ERA (4.19). The San Diego native probably lost his fair share of games over the last two seasons in Pittsburgh due to a lack of run support.
But, now that he’s in a new environment and on a team with playoff aspirations, I’d expect Musgrove to have more decisions go his way this time around.
He’s already off to a flying start this season, sporting a 1-0 record with a minuscule 0.47 ERA and 0.47 WHIP in three outings. And, who could forget the no-hitter he pitched two starts ago against the Rangers:
Start your day with all 27 outs of Joe Musgrove's no-hitter. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/iIUx4c5QOL
— MLB (@MLB) April 10, 2021
There’s no question that Musgrove is in the form of his life at the moment.
He has a good chance for another quality start on Monday when he faces a Milwaukee team ranks 20th with a below-average wRC+ value of 80. The current Brewers lineup has only 27 at-bats against Musgrove; but Milwaukee’s batters haven’t had much success, as evidenced by their .185 batting average and .267 OBP.
Brewers vs. Padres Pick
For whatever reason, Woodruff hasn’t been at his best when he’s pitched at Petco Park. This time around, he’ll be facing a Padres lineup ranked second in MLB with a .340 OBP and 10th with a wRC+ value of 104. Milwaukee must contend with Joe Musgrove, whose teams have yet to lose at Petco when he’s earned the start.
The Padres have also performed well off a win in the last game of a series with the Dodgers. Dating back to the 2016 season, San Diego is 17-10 for +10.72 units in this spot.
Sometimes a little psychological boost can do wonders for a team. This is a solid good spot for San Diego against a Milwaukee team that has been the more inconsistent of the two teams offensively.
A pitcher’s duel wouldn’t surprise me in this matchup, but I like the Padres to eke out a narrow win. Bet365 has the best Padres price on the board at -145, so I’ll look to place my action there.
Pick: Padres ML (-145)