The red-hot Kansas City Royals (24-16) host the Boston Red Sox (20-20) on Saturday, May 10, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN and FanDuel Kansas City.
Find our Red Sox vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Red Sox vs Royals Prediction
- Red Sox vs Royals picks: Under 7 (+100)
My Red Sox vs Royals best bet for Saturday is the game total to stay under 7 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Royals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -200 | 7 -118o / -104u | -102 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +164 | 7 -118o / -104u | -116 |
Red Sox vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) | Stat | LHP Cole Ragans (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 2.02 / 3.26 | ERA /xERA | 3.79 / 2.28 |
| 2.84 / 3.26 | FIP / xFIP | 2.38 / 2.26 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 18.4% | K-BB% | 31.1% |
| 47.5% | GB% | 37.2% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 93 | Location+ | 102 |
Red Sox vs Royals Preview
Battle of Aces: Crochet vs Ragans
Following a slow start to the season, the Royals have caught fire. Entering Saturday, they've won seven games in a row and 16 out of their last 18 overall, a feat Kansas City hasn't accomplished since 1978.
The Royals have a good shot of staying hot on Saturday night with Cole Ragans on the hill.
The left-hander concluded April with two dud starts in which he allowed nine runs over seven innings, but he bounced back on Monday, striking out 11 over five scoreless innings in a win over the White Sox.
Ragans will be going up against Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet, who is top five in the American League in ERA, FIP, K/9 and WAR.
It's a key early-season start for Crochet as the Red Sox have lost six of their last nine games.
The vibes are also extremely bad in Boston at the moment following Triston Casas' season-ending injury and the ongoing drama surrounding Rafael Devers and the front office.
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system targets Unders in regular-season MLB series after both teams had low-scoring performances in the previous game. In this case, Friday's Red Sox-Royals game had a final score of 2-1 in a 12-inning affair.
When both the home and visiting teams have scored 0–2 runs in the prior game, the following game is often priced based on regression assumptions.
However, many of these games continue to stay under the total due to momentum, fatigue or strong pitching matchups.
Limiting to games 2+ in a series helps isolate these carryover effects and remove opening-game volatility.
Pick: Under 7 (+100; BetMGM)
Moneyline
This system has no bet on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
We have no bet on the spread.
Over/Under
As outlined above, the game total staying under 7 is our bet for this game.
