Tuesday MLB Betting: Odds, Picks & Predictions for Mets vs. Marlins (Aug. 18)

Mets vs. Marlins Odds 

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After giving up 11 runs to open this series against the Mets, it seems the Marlins' magical start to the season has come to an end. They've now lost three straight games and have relinquished first place in the NL East to the Braves.

Meanwhile, the Mets' season is on the brink of disaster. They're in last place and four games below .500 through the first quarter of the season. They were swept by the Phillies over the weekend, and Philadelphia let them know on their way out of town.

Now the two meet in the second of a four-game series on Tuesday. Let's analyze the matchup.

Mets Projected Lineup

Despite their 10-14 record, the Mets' offense has been really good so far this season. They have the sixth-best wOBA (.331) and third-best wRC+ (115).

Inserting Dominic Smith after the first week of the season has paid off huge dividends as the 25-year-old is already leading the team in home runs (6) and RBIs (16), while accumulating a .444 wOBA in only 64 plate appearances.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning. 

Mets Projected Starter

David Peterson, LHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

The Mets' 2017 first-round pick is enjoying a fairly good start to his first season in the big leagues. He's posted a 2.98 ERA through his first four starts, but he's been a tad fortunate because his xFIP is all they way up at 4.88. He faced Miami back on Aug. 8, going five innings and allowing two earned runs.

David Peterson usually sits in the low 90s with his sinking fastball, which tends to produce a lot of ground balls (52.6% ground ball rate in Double-A last year). So far, it hasn't been very effective as opponents have a .360 wOBA against it in 93 pitches.

On the other hand, his slider has been electric so far, producing 13 punch-outs and a 36.7% whiff rate in only 88 pitches. He also has a changeup and straight fastball (different than his sinking fastball) that he mixes in frequently, which most scouts have characterized as average for the major league level.

The Marlins have struggled vs. lefties so far this season (.280 wOBA) and they have negative weighted runs against all of the pitches in Peterson's arsenal, so he has a fantastic matchup on Tuesday.

Marlins Projected Lineup

Despite their 9-7 record, the Marlins have been pretty bad offensively. They rank 24th in MLB with a .300 wOBA and 94 wRC+ and it's only gotten worse over the past week. They've been the worst offense in MLB, hitting .216 and have a wOBA of .280 over the last seven days.

Miami has also struggled vs. lefties so far this season, with only a .280 wOBA and 82 wRC+. The Marlins don't match well against David Peterson on Tuesday, either, as they've struggled so far vs. all of the pitches in his arsenal.

Marlins Projected Starter

Humberto Mejia, RHP

Mejia is a relatively unknown pitcher. So unknown that he doesn't even have any projections on Fangraphs.

He's spent the last four seasons in Single-A, but he's been good at that level, posting an xFIP under 3.30 in every season in the minors. He's the Marlins' 39th-ranked prospect in their system, so under normal circumstances, he probably wouldn't be in the big leagues right now.

He went only 2.1 innings in his first start against the Mets on Aug. 7, allowing one earned run and striking out six batters. He mainly uses a three-pitch combination of fastball, slider and curveball along with a changeup that he rarely uses. Mejia has average velocity but fantastic movement on his fastball, and his curveball is viable at the big league level.

I don't expect him to last long on Tuesday, so much of the game will be up to the Marlins' bullpen.

Mets & Marlins Bullpens

Despite Mets fans always complaining, they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. So far this season, they have an xFIP of 4.10, which ranks ninth in MLB.

The Marlins' bullpen was projected to be relatively average at the beginning of the season, but it's been a disaster so far with a collective 5.51 xFIP that ranks 28th in MLB.

Mets-Marlins Projections & Pick

The Mets facing Mejia a second time is only going to benefit them. Based on my projections, the current line for the full game does not provide much value. However, the Mets' first five inning line of -152 does provide some, though I would only bet it up to -160.

PICK: Mets First Five Innings (-152)

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