Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Odds & Picks: Back Strong Outings by Walker Buehler and Ryan Weathers (Thursday, April 22)

Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Odds & Picks: Back Strong Outings by Walker Buehler and Ryan Weathers (Thursday, April 22) article feature image
Credit:

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Buehler

  • The Dodgers and Padres played a memorable three-game series last weekend in San Diego.
  • They begin a four-game series tonight in Los Angeles.
  • What's in store for the rematch? Mike Ianniello breaks it down below.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds

Padres Odds +154
Dodgers Odds -184
Over/Under 8
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLBTV
Odds as of Thursday morning and via FanDuel.

After a three-game series last weekend where the Dodgers took two of the three games in San Diego, the NL West rivals will now head to Los Angeles for a four-game set.

The defending champion Dodgers have performed as expected, getting off to a 14-4 start, the best record in the MLB. The Padres sit at 10-10 and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. San Diego was most recently swept by the Milwaukee Brewers, scoring just three runs in three games.

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San Diego Padres

The Padres’ No. 5 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Ryan Weathers, will make just his second MLB start on Thursday against the Dodgers. Weathers made his first start against L.A. last Friday, and allowed one hit and no runs through 3 2/3 innings. He walked two and struck out three. After starting the season in the bullpen, the lefty has appeared in four games, allowing just one run and three hits, and striking out 10 batters through 9 2/3 innings.

Weathers was the seventh overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and due to the 2020 MiLB season being canceled, has never pitched above Single-A — with the exception, strangely, of a playoff appearance against the Dodgers last season when the pitching-deprived Padres called him up for his major-league debut in the NLDS. Weathers throws a 95.3 mph fastball, along with a changeup and a slider. Five of his 10 strikeouts have come with his slider and he has yet to allow a hit against it. So far, his 29.4 K% is excellent, but the 11.8 BB% is a concern.

The question with Weathers will be how long he lasts in the game. He has had success to this point, but Jayce Tingler has yet to leave the young arm in longer than four innings. This will be worth watching tonight, especially after the San Diego bullpen had to cover seven innings on Wednesday when starter Dinelson Lamet left with an injury after just two innings.

It’s fair to say we have not seen the fireworks we expected from this Padres lineup yet this season. San Diego ranks just 24th in runs per game, 14th in batting average, 27th in slugging percentage and 16th in wOBA.

Human highlight reel Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting just .143 with a .256 wOBA and has battled injuries early in the season. Manny Machado has been slightly better with a .273 average and .361 wOBA, but still a drop off from his .304 average and .391 wOBA last season.

Instead, it has been first baseman Eric Hosmer leading the way with a .311 average and .393 wOBA.

The Padres have been better against right-handed pitchers this year, sitting 11th with a .235 batting average and ninth with a .308 wOBA. Hosmer and Wil Myers have been especially good against right-handed pitching, with Homser batting .316 and Myers hitting .306.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

For the second time in his two career starts, Weathers will face Walker Buehler. Through three starts this season, Buehler has gone six innings each time and allowed a total of four runs. He has allowed 17 hits and has 12 strikeouts. Despite currently having a 2.00 ERA, Buehler also has a 4.02 xFIP.

While he has allowed just four runs, he has a 6.0 K/9, which is considerably lower than his career 10.13 K/9. He is also giving up more clean contact, with a 10.5 Barrel% more than double his career average, and a 49.1 Hard Hit% way up from his 35.1% standard.

Buehler’s average velocity is down on all his pitches and his slider has been hit especially hard, allowing a .422 wOBA and 62.5 Hard Hit%.

The Dodgers’ lineup would send a shiver down the spine of seasoned veteran, let alone a 21-year-old kid making his second career start. Los Angeles’ collection of All-Stars sits fourth with 5.22 runs per game, fifth with a .248 batting average, and third with a .340 wOBA.

The Dodgers will be without 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger but are expected to get Mookie Betts back in the lineup after missing a game.

Justin Turner has been stealing the show in Hollywood this season, off to a scorching start. The third baseman is hitting .381 and sits fourth in the league with a .492 wOBA.

Padres-Dodgers Pick

It is going to be hard to find value on the side in Dodgers games all season long. They are going to be huge favorites in every game, sitting at -180 for today’s contest.

I am going to look to bet the total in this one. I have really liked what I’ve seen from Weathers in his few appearances this season. He throws hard and has a terrific slider. The only concern with him is how long he will pitch into the game.

On the other side, Buehler is one of the best pitchers in baseball and, despite giving up more hard contact than usual, he is a good enough pitcher to work out of trouble and keep runs off the board.

The Padres’ offense is struggling and with two good starting pitchers on the mound, I am going to look to back under 4.5 in the first five innings. Last time these two pitchers faced off, it was 2-1 after five before getting weird in the later innings and ending 11-6 in 12 innings. Stick with the starting pitchers and hope they shine in Hollywood on Thursday night.

Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-120)

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