Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/30: Believe in Beede and Giants vs. Phillies
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Tyler Beede
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet Giants-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Giants (54-52) and Phillies (55-50) begin a three-game set in Philadelphia today, which will coincide with Wednesday’s trading deadline.
Both teams are within 2.5 games of an NL Wild Card spot, and the Giants now appear unlikely to deal Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Sam Dyson or other key pieces on their roster in an effort to make one final playoff and World Series run with Bruce Bochy at the helm.
However, FanGraphs only gives the Giants an 8% chance to capture a Wild Card spot and make the playoffs, while they provide a more optimistic playoff projection (21.6%) for the Phillies. But in a real, live playoff race, these head-to-head matchups are crucial, and any series win can drastically shift playoff probabilities.
A quick aside — if you watched Nickelodeon as a kid in the 1990s, there’s a strong chance that Marcus Stroman has been on your radar for a long time:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-2 against full-game moneylines and 0-0 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 0-2, and I finished down 1.18 units for the day.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 14 cents against the Braves moneyline (+141 to +127), and 19 cents against the strikeout prop that I played (-135 to -154).
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, July 30
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines, and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, and Rays as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins and Rays, in addition to the Dodgers, Padres, and Pirates as F5 plays.
I’ll start with the Giants-Phillies game I teased earlier.
I won’t rehash all of that in detail, but note that the talented righty now has 23 strikeouts against two walks in July (27.1 IP), and he has potentially solved his two most significant weaknesses: lack of overall command, and confidence in a breaking ball.
Beede threw his slider 29% of the time in his last outing against the Cubs, a career-high, while also using his fastball less than 50% for the first time in his MLB career. It’s evident that Beede is a different, and more confident pitcher now than he was even a month ago, and I’ll continue to back him.
As for the Diamondbacks, I often look to play them when I see line value against left-handed pitching and will do so today while getting a high price at Yankee Stadium.
The Diamondbacks offense ranks 5th, with a 112 wRC+ against southpaws, and the DH spot will allow them to plug Yasmany Tomas, who has a career 130 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, into their lineup.
Tomas had 30 doubles and 31 homers with Arizona in 2016, and has hit 23 doubles and 29 home runs in 98 games at Triple-A this season.
Consider using Tomas in your DFS lineups on Tuesday:
Diamondbacks starter Taylor Clarke doesn’t have numbers that inspire much confidence (6.10 ERA, 6.33 FIP, 5.64 xFIP), but neither does J.A. Happ, (5.31 FIP, 4.81 xFIP), and with Arizona’s ability to throw right-handed bats at Happ and get into a slugfest, I like their chances to pull a moneyline upset at a big price.
Happ’s rolling xwOBA spiked late in 2018 and has yet to return to above-average levels consistently; instead hovering around league average in 2019.
At the age of 36, this could mark the beginning of the end of his time as an above-average, effective starting pitcher — though some pitchers find a way to reinvent themselves.
As for the Marlins, rookie starter Zac Gallen has impressed, with a 3.47 FIP through his first six MLB starts.
His fastball-cutter-curveball-changeup arsenal is remarkably polished for a 23-year-old, and after watching him, it’s not at all surprising that he was dominating the offensive-friendly PCL with a 1.77 ERA before his promotion.
You don’t often see pitchers throw changeups to same-sided hitters, but Gallen’s offspeed stuff is too good to hit:
Minnesota’s lineup also loses a bit of punch with regular DH Nelson Cruz relegated to the bench in an NL park, and Jake Odorizzi has really struggled after a strong start to the season: compiling a 6.04 ERA, 5.24 FIP, and 4.89 xFIP since the beginning of June.
Bets (So Far) for July 30
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+191) Game Moneyline
- Miami Marlins (+140) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+116) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+122) Game Moneyline
- Over 11 (-110), Seattle at Texas
- F5 Moneyline Parlay (+104): Angels F5 (-250) and Padres F5 (-220)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/30
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.