Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/2: Will Red Sox, Yankees Show Jet Lag on Tuesday?
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher David Price
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including whether bettors should expect fatigue from the Yankees and Red Sox after playing in London.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
After playing two draining games in London — lasting more than nine total hours while featuring 50 runs, 65 hits and 30 pitchers used — the Red Sox and Yankees return stateside for road sets against the Blue Jays and Mets respectively.
One would have to imagine that these teams will be showing a bit of a fatigue.
The mental energy consumed by the fanfare of the event, in addition to the jet lag, will all take a toll on the players. NFL teams typically take an extra week off following their London trips in order to readjust to the time difference.
MLB gave their two most prominent teams a single day, making them prime fade candidates on Tuesday.
Josh Bell of the Pirates hit three home runs on Monday, single-handedly ruining my under bet between the Pirates and Cubs:
You’ll be seeing him in the Home Run Derby on July 8.
The switch-hitting first baseman is in the midst of a breakout season, with a .308 batting average, 25 HR and 77 RBI in 82 games played.
Bell’s 28% home run-to-fly ball rate is certainly due to regress, but he’s also pulling the ball 9% more often than last season while increasing his hard-hit rate by 15%.
The average exit velocity off of his bat is 93.4 mph, seventh best in baseball and up 3.4 mph from 2018. Other than Rafael Devers, Bell has recorded the most batted balls (126) at 95+ mph this season.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-0 against full-game moneylines and 2-0 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 0-2, and I finished down 1.1 units for the day.
It was an overall positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents against the Pirates total (+105 to -110), but the two ends of the parlay that I played moved in opposite directions.
Tampa Bay’s F5 line dropped from -260 to -250, while the Padres game moneyline climbed from -157 to -165.
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, July 2
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Astros, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets and Royals as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins, Mets and Royals as F5 plays.
Marlins-Nationals features the same pitching matchup that I broke down on June 26, between Zac Gallen and Patrick Corbin.
I should note that Corbin dominated the Marlins for the second time this season (7 IP 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K) in that outing, following his complete-game shutout over Miami on May 25.
The Nationals probably have more to gain by seeing a young pitcher like Gallen for the second time in a week than the Marlins do by seeing Corbin again, but I do like Gallen quite a bit and there is certainly value on the Marlins (as there is every day).
The model also likes another young pitcher, Jose Urquidy of the Astros, who will be making his major league debut at Coors Field.
The 24-year-old righty from Mexico missed the entire 2017 season following Tommy John surgery, but he has posted some impressive minor league numbers while showing an uptick in velocity in his second full season after recovery.
His fastball sits in the mid 90s and goes along with a plus-changeup and average curveball.
Between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, Urquidy has thrown 76.2 innings while recording 104 strikeouts against 15 walks, with a 0.98 WHIP.
And bear in mind, those Triple-A numbers also came in the extremely offense-friendly Pacific Coast League, where most parks play like Coors Field.
While Urquidy has a flyball tendency, he has allowed only 20 home runs in 297 minor league innings, but it’s worth keeping an eye on at Coors Field.
As for the Blue Jays and Mets, I’m using both in fade spots against the Red Sox and Yankees.
Both home teams showed value even before I factored in the jet lag and potential pitching fatigue for Boston and New York. Of the two, I think Toronto is the stronger play.
The Blue Jays offense started surging in June — look at how their gains compare to the first two months of the season:
- Through May 31: 76 wRC+ (27th), .278 wOBA( 27th), 8.2% BB (25th), 27.7% K (29th)
- June 1 – July 1: 107 wRC+ (seventh), .331 wOBA (eighth), 9.6% BB (4th) 22.9% K (14th)
Eric Sogard has been a revelation and is having a career year at age 33.
Zach Wheeler gets another chance to face the Yankees after allowing five runs on 10 hits (1 BB, 6 K) in 4.2 innings of a 12-5 loss at Yankee Stadium on June 11. His strikeout-minus-walk rate (18.3%) is a career high.
He’ll benefit from the Yankees finally having a hole in their lineup with James Paxton being forced to bat, but will need to limit the home run ball against the team breaking all of the home run records.
Wheeler’s ERA (4.51) is a tad inflated compared to a 3.77 FIP, 3.90 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA, due to his allowing 1.25 home runs per nine innings, an 80% increase from last season (0.69 HR/9).
Bets (So Far) for July 2
- Houston Astros (+108) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (+130) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+148) Game Moneyline
- Under 9.5 (-120), Minnesota at Oakland
- Under 10.5 (-120), Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/2
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.