Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/26: Back Morton and Fade the Twins?
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Charlie Morton
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 26 with his model below and highlights Yankees-Blue Jays (1:05 p.m. ET) and Rays-Twins (8:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker was electric in an elimination game on Tuesday (6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 11 K), while looking major-league ready during his freshman season in college:
— NCAA Baseball (@NCAACWS) June 26, 2019
The stuff is pure filth:
Kumar Rocker, 96mph Fastball & 83mph Slider (home plate view).
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 26, 2019
Vanderbilt and Michigan play Game 3 on Wednesday night and like my colleague Collin Wilson, I’m on the VandyBoys to win it all.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-5 against full-game moneylines and 2-3 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 4-4, and I finished up 0.13 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 10 cents against the parlay that I played (combined odds moved from +100 to -110), six cents against the Mariners moneyline (+166 to +160), and three cents against the Rays moneyline (-105 to -108),
However, only one of the four unders that I played moved my way (in Arizona, from 9.5 to 9.0). Two moved away from me (in Baltimore, from 10.5 to 11.0 and in Chicago, from 12.0 to 12.5). I also lost 14 cents of juice against the Mets-Phillies under (-115 to -101).
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, June 26
Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Miami Marlins, New York Mets and San Francisco Giants as full-game plays. The model also likes those same three teams, in addition to the Baltimore Orioles, as F5 plays.
The Mets have some (new!) off-field problems keeping me away from their side today with Jason Vargas pitching. Vargas had a 2.81 ERA in May and has a 2.66 ERA in June, but his mental makeup for this game could be wholly unpredictable.
This situation is less than surprising for this organization, but it’s also a reminder to be holistic in your betting approach — this is never strictly about numbers.
That being said, my projections love Zac Gallen and the Marlins today against the Nationals.
Along with Sandy Alcantara, Gallen was the other highlight piece in the Marcell Ozuna trade in December 2017.
Gallen spent all of 2018 in Triple-A, ranking second in the offense-friendly Pacific Coast League with a 3.65 ERA and 136 strikeouts (2.95 K/BB).
In 14 starts at Triple-A to begin the 2019 season, he went 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA, and 112 strikeouts against 17 walks (6.58 K/BB) in 91.1 innings pitched.
He is a high-floor pitcher with a smooth delivery, who primarily relies on his cutter, but also uses a four-seam fastball, changeup and curveball.
The changeup is probably his best secondary offering:
Zac Gallen, Filthy 86mph Changeup (first major league K). 😷 pic.twitter.com/M5xlTm3u5m
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 20, 2019
I’ve also touched on Patrick Corbin and his 2019 regression previously, but I’ll address it again here quickly:
- Batted Ball Data: His 2018 xwOBA (.282) is a clear year-over-year outlier. Corbin’s career mark (.320) essentially mimics his 2019 (.321) and 2017 (.324) seasons.
- Fielding Independent Metrics: The same thing can be said for his 2019 FIP (3.91) and xFIP (3.97), which align closer to 2017 (4.08, 3.89) and show clear regression from an outlier 2018 (2.47, 2.61).
- Plate Discipline: Corbin’s swinging-strike rate is down 3% (from 15.6% to 12.5%), and batters are chasing at his pitches outside of the zone 5% less often.
This is a rare spot where I’ll play the Marlins.
I think I’m going to skip the Giants, however. German Marquez has been dominant away from Coors Field, permitting half the number of walks and home runs on the road as he allows at home, and in three additional innings pitched.
He tossed a one-hitter against the Giants the last time that he faced them, and I’m not entirely certain if San Francisco has scored in a home game when I’ve bet on them this season.
The other side that I like today is the Rays, with underrated Charlie Morton and a chance to fade former Ray Jake Odorizzi.
My colleague Stuckey featured Odorizzi as a pitcher that he’s looking to fade, and that regression has already begun in Odorizzi’s past two outings.
In those starts (both against the Royals) he allowed eight runs on 15 hits in 10 innings and has seen the gap between his xwOBA and wOBA narrow from 0.5 to 0.4.
Morton is also about as consistent as it gets. He turned in 18 quality starts in 2018 and has nine this season, including six in his past eight outings.
His xwOBA (.273), FIP (2.99), xFIP (3.35) and swinging strike rate (13%) are each career bests and he has generated nearly as much WAR (+2.6) as he did in all of 2018 (+2.9) and 2017 (+3.1).
Lastly, I like a couple of unders due to some umpire trends and projections that are about a run lower than the listed totals.
In New York, umpire Cory Blaser has a career 54% lean to unders (123-102-11, +$1,534, 6.5% ROI), but in day games played before 5 p.m. ET that record improves to 62.5% (35-21, +$1,343, 24% ROI).
Maybe it’s a small sample, or maybe Cory is ready to move on to an early dinner reservation after his day games.
Either way, I project the game at nine runs, and the under continues to take steam at 10 even after moving down from 10.5.
Lastly, I played Under 10 in St. Louis despite a seemingly below-average pitching matchup between Adam Wainwright and Daniel Mengden.
I also project that game for nine runs, and Ron Kulpa is one of the most bankable “under” umpires to boot. Totals have gone under at a 56.8% rate in Kulpa’s career (238-181), making a $100 bettor a profit of +42 units.
Bets (So Far) for June 26
- Miami Marlins (+135) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+100) Game Moneyline
- Under 10 (-115), Toronto at NY Yankees
- Under 10 (-120), Oakland at St. Louis
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/26
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.