MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/27: Bet deGrom As an Underdog vs. Kershaw, Dodgers?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 27 with his model below and highlights Indians-Red Sox (4:05 p.m. ET) and Mets-Dodgers (8:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Happy Memorial Day!
We honor the brave men and women who have sacrificed their lives to protect this country.
— MLB (@MLB) May 27, 2019
We’ve got a much fuller MLB slate than your typical Monday, including a day-night doubleheader between the Pirates and Reds in Cincinnati, and a primetime showdown between Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles.
I’m so excited, I’m jumping out of my seat:
Frankly, we all deserve the level of support Vladito & Lourdes Gurriel Jr. give Cavan Biggio. pic.twitter.com/4aF2SMiwvl
— Cut4 (@Cut4) May 26, 2019
Let’s get to it.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
However, there were several smaller edges below 4% that I played.
My tracked plays went 5-1, and I was up 2.59 units for the day.
Sunday was also a very positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 30 cents against Minnesota’s F5 spread (-160 to -190), 16 cents against the Boston moneyline (+167 to +151), 12 cents against the Toronto F5 line (-105 to -117), 7 cents against the Phillies moneyline (+150 to +143), and finished even with the Dodgers F5 spread (-115).
The total on the Boston/Houston game also dropped from 8.5 to 8.0.
On Deck for Monday, May 27
The model recommends three full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Monday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Cleveland Indians, Miami Marlins, and New York Mets as the full-game plays. It also likes Marlins and Mets as F5 plays, in addition to the Texas Rangers.
With Jacob deGrom squaring off against Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles, I’m surprised to see the Mets listed as such a big underdog. I have them winning the game 46% of the time, and the first half close to 49% of the time.
The Mets make for a great first half play, and I took them on both the F5 spread and moneyline.
deGrom took his game to a new level in 2018, raising his swinging strike rate from 13% to 15% — and it’s a level he has maintained this season for the most part.
One potential red flag: After allowing just 10 home runs in 2018 over 217 innings pitched, deGrom has already allowed eight home runs in 58.0 innings in 2019. His 0.41 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) rate from last season was due to regress towards his career 0.79 mark, but it’s sailed past that to 1.24.
He did give up 28 home runs in 201.1 innings in 2017, a 1.25 HR/9 rate, and his ERA finished at 3.53. It’s at 3.72 in 2019 (3.35 FIP, 3.23 xFIP), after finishing at 1.70 in 2018 (1.99 FIP, 2.60 xFIP).
Kerhsaw’s fielding independent metrics places his current performance (with a 90 mph fastball) at a 3.20 xFIP. There is truly not much between these two pitchers. If anything, deGrom has a higher upside at present.
Jacob deGrom, 96mph Fastball and 91mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/1yu6pJRF5B
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 24, 2018
I’m playing the Texas Rangers in a similar way (both F5 moneyline and spread) against the Seattle Mariners, who are now 10-30 in their last 40 games after a 13-2 start.
This same pitching matchup occurred in Texas on May 21, with the Rangers prevailing 5-3. I backed Lance Lynn in the first half that day, and he came through with 11 strikeouts over 7 innings, while Tommy Milone actually pitched better than expected:
The relevant note: Milone has pitched to an xwOBA of about .360 since the start of the 2016 season, equating to an expected ERA of more than 5.80. Lynn is slightly above league average, with a .315 xwOBA and a 4.44 expected ERA.
Lastly, I’m backing Cleveland on the road today as a big underdog against the Red Sox.
It’s a tough one to stomach on paper: Cleveland’s starter, Jefry Rodriguez, has pitched to a 4.96 xFIP, with fewer than 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and a poor 1.77:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
However, Cleveland has received some professional action, including a reverse line move at +165, and anytime that my projections line up with pro action, I don’t hesitate to make the play on a competitive team.
Bets (So Far) for May 27
- Cleveland Indians (+158) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (+135) F5 Moneyline
- New York Mets (+0.5, -110) F5 Spread
- Texas Rangers (+105) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+0.5, -130) F5 Spread
- Under 10, San Diego at NY Yankees
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/27
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.