MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/21: Does Zach Eflin Have the Right Stuff to Beat the Cubs?

May 21, 2019 02:27 PM EDT
Credit:

Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Zach Eflin

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on May 21 with his model below, and highlights Rays-Dodgers (7:10 p.m. ET) and Phillies-Cubs (7:05 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

This is a baseball column, but we need to briefly talk about an otherworldly softball performance.

Miranda Elish from the University of Texas threw every pitch (429) over four wins on Saturday and Sunday to help Texas advance out of the Austin Super Regional after losing their opening game on Friday night.

Elish blew her riseball by batters and screamed in their faces:

And she raked at the plate too:

If Texas goes on to win the National Championship, this will go down as one of the great individual performances in the history of college sports.

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-2 against full-game moneylines, and 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My tracked plays went 1-1, and I was up 0.07 units for the day.

Andrew Suarez tossed a quality start for the Giants, but Mike Soroka was on a perfect game watch for Atlanta through the sixth inning.

Monday was a negative day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I lost 17 cents on the Minnesota moneyline (+113 to +130) and 15 cents on the San Francisco moneyline (+123 to +138).

It’s rare that I lose CLV on more than one play in a day, so perhaps I timed the market incorrectly on two underdogs in a short slate.

On Deck for Tuesday, May 21

All odds as of Monday morning (view live odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Tuesday, May 21. 

The model recommends five full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Tuesday. 

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