Walsh’s Wake and Rake: Time for a Dumb Bettor to Follow Smart Money

Yesterday did not go well for my betting bankroll. It did get off to an encouraging start with Alexander Rossi — a driver I bet multiple times throughout the week — leading the Indy 500 with just a handful of laps to go.

In addition, two driver matchups were well on their ways to cashing, setting me up for a great afternoon of motorsports betting. Of course, Simon Pagenaud sling-shotted past Rossi with two laps to go and cruised to the checkered flag.

Frustrating, but still a small profit considering two easy driver matchup winners.

With a couple of extra bucks in my pocket, I decided it was going to be a smart decision to fade Martin Truex Jr. across five driver matchups in last night's Coca-Cola 600. Truex's performance on similar tracks this season was not good, so the bets were made with at least some data supporting my side.

Boy was I wrong about #FadeTruex.

Truex stormed from his 14th-place starting position to the front of the field, leading the most laps and eventually winning the race. That small profit from the Indy 500 quickly became a significant loss on the day.

But today is a new day, and thankfully there are no auto races for me to be wrong about. Instead of going with my own analysis — which could surely use some investigation — I'm going to let the pros do the work.

Monday offers a loaded MLB slate, and sharps have already taken a clear position on the Diamondbacks-Rockies matchup, one that I'm tailing as well.

The Diamondbacks opened at -115 and 81% of bettors have grabbed Arizona. However, the moneyline has dropped to a consensus of +102.

If tickets are overwhelmingly backing the D-backs, why has the line moved away from them?

For starters, the actual money wagered is more balanced than the tickets, as 66% of dollars are backing Arizona compared to 81% of bets.

Still, that's not enough, in a vacuum, to move the line away from the Diamondbacks.

Sports Insights' Bet Signals — which track and report professional betting action in real-time — have triggered three Reverse Line Moves and one Steam Move on Colorado.

This tells us that while the majority of bettors are taking Arizona, sharps are in agreement that the Rockies are the side offering value in this matchup.

And since I've been nothing close to sharp over the past 24 hours, I'm happy to simply come along for the ride.