The Los Angeles Dodgers (56-32) host the Houston Astros (52-35) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The MLB Fourth of July slate concludes with two teams who hate each other in the Astros and Dodgers. How should bettors approach this rivalry game?
Find my Astros vs Dodgers prediction and pick for Friday night below.
Astros vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick Tonight
- Astros vs Dodgers picks: Astros Moneyline (+155, BetMGM) | Play to +145
My Astros vs Dodgers best bet is on the Astros moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Dodgers Odds, Lines
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -133 | 9 -110o / -110u | +153 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +109 | 9 -110o / -110u | -188 |
Astros vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) | Stat | RHP Ben Casparius (LA) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 6-2 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 6.61/4.84 | ERA /xERA | 3.97/3.16 |
| 5.63/4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 2.74/3.66 |
| 1.62 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 12.7 | K-BB% | 18.0 |
| 45.2 | GB% | 34.9 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 90 | Location+ | 107 |
Astros vs Dodgers Preview, Prediction
Astros Betting Preview: Solving the McCullers Mystery
It's really a mystery what's going on with Lance McCullers at the moment — or perhaps the better way to put it is that it's a mystery as to what he's going to do next.
The right-hander, who was once an undeniable pitching prospect, struggled a bit in May before dazzling to open up the month of June, throwing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Since then, it's been a mess. The Astros starter has yielded 12 runs across his last two outings, walking four in each appearance, with a total of four home runs allowed.
We've now got a somewhat significant sample to look at this year, as he's gone almost 33 innings across eight starts, and what we can see is that McCullers has managed to sustain his ground-ball and strikeout rates, but he's also continued to be victimized by walks.
The most concerning development is McCullers' elevated hard-hit rate, which has risen to a staggering 51.6%. Opponents are clobbering his sinker and changeup, but while they've performed well against his famous slider, the expected numbers highlight he's been a bit unlucky on that delivery.
If you're looking for a glimmer of hope, it's that — but unfortunately, on the whole, he's gotten significantly worse since his first month back from injury.
Dodgers Betting Preview: Bullpen Needs Some Rest
We're going to have to have a conversation soon about the Dodgers' pitching staff. They've got just three healthy starters at the moment, and that doesn't include Shohei Ohtani, who's yet to be stretched out beyond two innings as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery.
That's put a ton of stress on this bullpen, and L.A. will be hoping Ben Casparius can eat some innings here after being stretched back out as a starter/long reliever last month. He managed to complete four innings last time out against the Kansas City Royals but allowed six runs against arguably the worst offense in baseball.
Casparius has tailed off after a brilliant start to the season, allowing 13 hits in his last two starts with very few strikeouts to show for. He continues to throw strikes at a high rate, with just 6% of the batters he's faced reaching on a walk, and while his Baseball Savant page looks like a good one, his numbers went the wrong direction in June.
The young righty's Expected Batting Average spiked to .277 in June with a .460 Expected Slugging, which backs up the poor results.
His strikeout rate has also plummeted from around 30% to just 13.5% last month, and he tripled his home run output for the season. This could simply be due to the righty throwing more innings now that he's being used as a starter — something that was new in June.
Astros vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Against all odds, this aging Astros lineup has sustained its production without an injured Yordan Alvarez. They're hitting a cool .255 in the last two weeks as they continue to limit strikeouts and make a bunch of contact — and while they're not walking much, that's not something many teams do against Casparius.
The key component here is that Casparius is a dead-ball pitcher. Houston's third in OPS to these types and stands dead last against ground ballers, which makes perfect sense given its swing-first approach.
The Astros should get plenty of balls into play against Casparius, something that's going to be trouble given the poor state of this Dodgers defense and the quality of contact that's been made against the youngster.
On the flip side, while L.A. has cooled off a bit, it's still hit for a menacing .224 ISO in the last 14 days, something that would seem to be damning given what McCullers has been doing in his last four starts.
With that said, the Dodgers have looked bad against sliders — a pitch that McCullers has thrown a bit better than his results would indicate.
They owned just a .219 xBA against the pitch from right-handers last month with a measly .369 xSLG, and that gives me just enough faith here to back the road underdogs in a game that should feature plenty of runs.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (+155, BetMGM)
