MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/6: Back Corbin or Lucchesi as Nationals, Padres Battle in San Diego?
Dan Hamilton, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Joey Lucchesi
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 5 with his model below and highlights Rays-Tigers (1:10 p.m. ET) and Padres-Nationals (10:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
I talked a bunch about big curveballs in Wednesday’s preview, but Astros first baseman Tyler White might have tossed the best one of the day:
Tyler White, Nasty 67mph Hanging Curveball. pic.twitter.com/9oisDLCKla
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 6, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-2-1 against moneylines for the first five (F5) innings.
The Minnesota plays were “No-Action” with Carrasco scratched.
My tracked plays went 4-3-1 and I finished up 0.43 units for the day, taking a late night bad beat on the Pirates-Braves under 9.5.
It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents overall against moneylines and spreads, and 15 cents against the two unders that I played. The over I took in San Diego also moved up from 7.0 to 7.5.
On Deck for Thursday, June 6
The model recommends three full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday.
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, and Seattle Mariners as full-game plays. It also likes the Marlins and Mariners, in addition to the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Texas Rangers as F5 plays.
From these recommended plays I took the Padres on the full-game line, and the Marlins, Royals, and Rangers in the first half.
However, I didn’t want to lay big juice on the Rangers, so I took them on the F5 spread instead.
I discussed yesterday how the Rangers take early leads by scoring often in the first inning. They are now 13-4 against the spread as an F5 favorite in 2019 and find themselves in that position once again today facing David Hess, who has allowed 50 runs in 55 innings pitched this season.
The Rays are 18-9 against the spread as an F5 favorite in games that Ryne Stanek has opened (dating back to 2018). Over the same period they’re also 20-12 against the number as an F5 favorite vs. lefty starters.
Playing either of those every time would have netted you a return on investment over 20% since the start of 2018.
I’ll continue to ride two other trends with the Rays on the full-game spread (41-23, 24.5% ROI) and Oakland Athletics on the full-game moneyline (44-30, 18.3% ROI) against a couple of lefties, as they have each smashed southpaws since the start of 2018.
Khris Davis might have Tyler Skaggs’ number. He’s 7-for-18 with four home runs against Skaggs.
Lastly, in the night matchup I’m siding with Joey Lucchesi and the Padres over Patrick Corbin and the Nationals.
Lucchesi was effective in his rookie season, but has batted ball data (.319 xwOBA) was slightly below average. It’s down to .283 in 2019 and his xwOBA on contact is also down nearly 50 points.
Lucchesi has added a cutter (11% usage) to his strange arsenal in 2019.
If you are unfamiliar, Lucchesi throws a “churve” a hybrid changeup-curveball which he manipulates in different ways depending on the handedness of the batter:
It’s pretty damn effective:
Joey Lucchesi’s 79 mph Curveball K's Kyle Seager swinging over the top.
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) August 30, 2018
The Nationals and Padres should be locked in a pitchers duel early, but I would look to take the live over or the Padres live moneyline (if they are trailing or tied) once this game approaches the sixth or seventh inning and you begin to see the Nationals bullpen warming up.
Bets (So Far) for June 6
- Kansas City Royals (+125) F5 Moneyline
- Miami Marlins (+140) F5 Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (+120) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (-107) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-0.5, -125) F5 Spread
- Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -12) Game Spread
- Texas Rangers (-0.5, -115) F5 Spread
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/6
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.