MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Mariners vs. Astros Overs To Bet on Labor Day (Monday, Sept. 6)

MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Mariners vs. Astros Overs To Bet on Labor Day (Monday, Sept. 6) article feature image
Credit:

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Astros standout Alex Bregman.

  • Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, baseball bettors have been thriving all season.
  • In honor of Labor Day, MLB betting analyst Tanner McGrath has identified two value bets on the board.
  • Find out why he's targeting this pair of Astros overs when Houston hosts the Seattle Mariners on Monday night.

Happy Labor Day!

It’s the perfect day to dive into some MLB player props. And using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve identified one strikeout total that provides value. Plus, I’ve identified a position player prop that I believe provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.

MLB Player Props & Picks

Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases

Astros vs. Mariners Astros -220
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
Best Book DraftKings

Since coming off the IL on Aug. 25, Bregman is working on an eight-game hit streak. He’s got a great shot to keep that streak going on Monday.

In my opinion, Yusei Kikuchi is a stud who has made massive contributions to the success of the Mariners this season. However, there’s no question that he’s struggled with a few Astros batters.

While Yordan Alvarez and Carlos Correa both stand out as potential plays in this game, Bregman is the best bet — mostly due to his expected statistics. In 15 lifetime ABs against Kikuchi, Bregman has lit him up for a 92.1 average exit velocity and a 23.3 degree average launch angle. The batted balls has produced a .633 xSLG and a .477 xwOBA in those matchups.

Given the hard-hit balls, Bregman has smacked three doubles and a home run in his six hits against Kikuchi. Plus, while Bregman has been on his hit streak, Kikuchi has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 19 innings pitched while posting an xFIP over 5.5.

Bregman should take advantage of his mismatch against Kikuchi to extend his hit streak on Labor Day.

Lance McCullers Jr. Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Astros vs. Mariners Astros -220
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
Best Book DraftKings

Continuing with the Astros theme, I love McCullers’ strikeout total.

Not only has Lance been having a great season, he’s been blowing by batters. He’s hit over 6.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 23 starts and eight of his last 10 — strikeout numbers on par with the likes of Jacob DeGrom and Corbin Burnes.

Overall, McCullers is striking out 27.3% of batters faced and 10.47 per nine innings. He’s a sinkerballer first, but it’s his three secondary pitches that put away hitters. He’s posted higher than a 35% whiff rate on his slider, changeup and curveball this season, throwing the three pitches almost 60% of the time.

Now he gets to face the strikeout-happy Mariners.

Over the past 30 days, the Mariners have struck out at the third-highest rate in MLB (25.7%) and at the second-highest rate against RHPs (26.7%). Meanwhile, they’ve posted just an 86 wRC+ vs. RHPs over that stretch, so they haven’t been hammering pitchers in the process.

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