MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Phillies Players Against the Depleted Cubs (Wednesday, Sept. 15)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suárez.
After taking a good, long look at the MLB slate using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I've discovered that the best bet today is to fade the Cubs.
As such, we're targeting the Phillies starting pitcher and one of their MVP candidates for prop plays today.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| Phillies vs. Cubs | Phillies (-210) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
On the other side of the ball, Suarez gets to face a strikeout-happy Cubs lineup.
Against LHPs over the past month, the Cubs have struck out 28% of the time, which is by far and away the highest mark in the league. The Cubs have a depleted lineup that loves to swing-and-miss.
Meanwhile, between his duties as a middle reliever, closer, and starter this season, Suarez has racked up over 9.00 K/9. Plus, he's been hot lately, pitching 23 innings over his last four starts while striking out 25 and allowing just three runs.
Suarez went over this number in three of those starts, and he has a great opportunity to do so again today.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)
| Phillies vs. Cubs | Phillies (-210) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This line is juiced. Far more juiced than I've ever made a total bases wager. However, it's impossible to ignore what Bryce Harper has been doing.
Harper has gone over 1.5 total bases in 28 of his last 40 contests. During that 40-game stretch — which reaches back to exactly August 1 — Harper is batting .331 with a 1.225 OPS, knocking 29 extra-base hits as well.
And, he's gotten even hotter recently. He's on a 10-game hit streak (where he's hit over 1.5 total bases in eight of them) where he's 12-for-32 with six homers and eight walks to just seven strikeouts.
It's impossible to be this good at baseball. He's single-handedly keeping the Phillies offense afloat (although the Phillies' playoff hopes have largely been dashed).
Today, Harper gets Alec Mills. In five AB's vs. Mills, Harper is 3-for-5 with a double and a home run, notching a 102.2 mph average exit velocity and a 1.345 xSLG in the process.
Plus, if Harper doesn't leg out a double against Mills, he'll have plenty of chances against a horrendous Cubs bullpen.
I don't care how juiced the line is, Harper is an auto-bet for the foreseeable future.
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