Friday MLB Player Prop Bets: Our 2 Favorite Picks Feat. Nathan Eovaldi & Paul Goldschmidt (Sept. 3)
Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi (left) and Paul Goldschmidt.
- Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, MLB bettors have been thriving all season.
- Tanner McGrath lays out one strikeout total and then one batter with betting value on Friday night.
Following a 2-0 day yesterday and careful inspection of Friday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve found one strikeout total on the MLB card that provides value.
Plus, I’ve identified a position player prop that I believe provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, so I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Nathan Eovaldi — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
|Red Sox vs. Indians||Red Sox (-178)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Nathan Eovaldi has been an excellent pitcher this season. In fact, he leads the entire American League in pitching fWAR this season (4.6).
He’s also been a huge reason for the Red Sox over-performing expectations. While Chris Sale was hurt, Eovaldi stepped up as the ace of the staff and has strung together many quality performances.
However, he rarely records at least seven strikeouts. In fact, he’s done so in just 10 of his 26 starts this season — a 38% hit rate that automatically creates value on the -108 price.
On Friday night, Eovaldi will face an Indians lineup that is striking out at the eighth-lowest rate vs. RHPs over the past 30 days (21.1%). Plus, Eovaldi’s strikeout numbers actually drop when he pitches at Fenway Park, where he’s punching out just under nine batters per nine innings.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Eovaldi projected at just six strikeouts today, and I wholeheartedly agree with the projection. I’m happy to hammer the under 6.5 number FanDuel is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Paul Goldschmidt — Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
|Cardinals vs. Brewers||Cardinals (+160)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
As the Cardinals have begun making a push for a National League wild-card spot, Goldschmidt has been the catalyst of the massively improved lineup.
Since July 1, Goldschmidt is batting.355 with a 1.069 OPS since July 1. Plus, in that 28-game span, Goldy has walked 13 times to just 17 strikeouts while smacking 17 extra-base hits (nine doubles, one triple and seven home runs).
Given the run he’s been on, he’s been cashing his bases prop consistently of late. He’s hit over 1.5 bases in six of his last 10 outings, while compiling 35 total bases in that stretch.
Additionally, he’s been a thorn in Milwaukee’s side lately. He’s on a six-game hit streak against his divisional rival, has hit over 1.5 bases in five of those games, and has compiled a whopping 16 bases in the games.
Some of that success is due with his opposing pitcher today. In 11 lifetime plate appearances against Freddy Peralta, Goldschmidt is 6-for-10 with four extra-base hits (two doubles and two home runs) and has recorded a 1.288 xSLG behind a 98.3 mph average exit velocity in those AB’s.
I’m looking for Goldschmidt to continue his run of success against his rival today, and I love this prop at decent plus-money odds.