Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Wednesday?
Series Moneyline Corner
First, let's take a look at my updated projected series prices for the Divisional Round after Tuesday's Game 1s:
Philadelphia's series projection jumped by 18.2% following its upset win in Game 1. The Phillies have a chance to steal the NLDS over the reigning champions with their two best pitchers — Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola — taking the ball in Games 2 and 3, respectively.
Our series ticket on the Phillies (+180 before Game 1) is in good shape, and I still like their series price to -138 (58% implied) or better, at a two percent edge compared to my current number. If you didn't buy in already, that's an acceptable price target. Still, I wouldn't add more to our current position if you're already riding a series ticket from before Game 1.
Houston's series projection improved by 17.3% following its come-from-behind Game 1 win. I would have made the Astros roughly 43% underdogs — a 19% decrease — following a Game 1 loss, so the walk-off bomb by Yordan Alvarez was worth more than 36% to Houston's series probability. That was a big blow to our Mariners (+210) series ticket, and I don't see value on either side of the series price before Game 2 (currently Houston -450, Seattle +380).
The Yankees only improved their series probability by 11% following their Game 1 win. I expect to favor the Guardians in Game 3 at home (Triston McKenzie vs. Luis Severino) and will undoubtedly look to bet on them in that matchup. However, I already have a bet on the Yankees' moneyline for Game 2, and I don't see value in the updated series price (opened Yankees -380, Guardians +310).
The Dodgers gained 15.2% on their series probability following a dominant Game 1 victory. Although the Padres have their top three starters lined up for Games 2-4 of this series, they seemed one pitcher short in their rotation coming into the playoffs. Realistically, they needed to sweep the Mets to have a chance against the Dodgers — by giving Yu Darvish a pair of starts in this NLDS instead of one opportunity.
I'm uncertain what the Padres would do for Game 5 — if they even make it there — and I couldn't bet San Diego's series price below +500 (16.7% implied) before Game 2.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves, 4:35 p.m. ET
Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Wright (full projections here)
Zack Wheeler (3.10 xERA, 3.06 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA) enters Wednesday's start on complete rest after a dominant effort in Game 1 against the Cardinals (6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K). He was equally dominant in three outings against the Braves this season (20 IP, 18 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 25 K).
Wheeler carries a career .668 OPS against Atlanta's current roster in 210 plate appearances, alongside an elite 27.1% K-BB%, 5.8% better than his season average. However, 10 plate appearances and six strikeouts came against Braves pitchers, so you can temper expectations slightly.
Kyle Wright (3.89 xERA, 3.30 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA) had three more wins (21) than any other starting pitcher this season; but likely overachieved — to a slight degree — compared to his underlying metrics. He faced the Phillies three times during his breakout campaign (19 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 7 BB, 15 K).
A former top-five pick, Wright shaved five percent off his walk rate this season, year over, and modified his pitch mix, reducing his four-seam fastball and slider usage in favor of sinkers, changeups, and curveballs.
He deploys the curveball at a similar rate against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. But even though he modified his pitch mix, Wright still carries a noticeable platoon split (2.96 xFIP vs. righties, 3.61 vs. lefties).
As I mentioned before Game 1, both teams are better against left-handed pitching than righties. Still, Atlanta featured the better offense against right-handed pitching over the entire season (108 vs. 102 wrC+) and after the trade deadline (112 vs. 109).
The Phillies had the seventh-best offense against curveballs on a per-pitch basis. They ranked 11th against all fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers) and 6th against changeups.
Wheeler has had a relatively stable pitch mix for the past few seasons (roughly 42% four-seam fastballs, 27% sliders, 18% sinkers, and 12% curveballs).
Zack Wheeler, 98mph Fastball (foul) and 91mph Slider (swinging K), Overlay. pic.twitter.com/TqR3n4fEnH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2022
On a per-pitch basis, Atlanta ranked second against fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers), seventh against sliders, and ninth against curveballs. Given the splits against handedness and pitch types, one has to give Atlanta a slight offensive edge for Wednesday. In contrast, Philly likely had the advantage on Tuesday in a matchup between two lefties.
The Braves undoubtedly have the superior bullpen, particularly with David Robertson (3.05 xERA) injuring himself in the Wild Card Round by jumping up and down (which you can add to the long list of weird baseball injuries). I model Atlanta's bullpen (3.03 Weighted ERA) just behind the Dodgers (2.97) and Guardians (2.94) and have the Phillies rated a half-run worse (3.53) in my projections.
Additionally, Atlanta is the superior defensive team; though, as I have mentioned, the Phillies improved their defensive rating substantially (-33, 25th in Defensive Runs Saved) as the season wore on. Edmundo Sosa (+5 in 42 games at shortstop) has provided a massive lift up the middle.
I projected the Braves as -110 favorites (52.5% implied) for Tuesday, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline at current odds. Philadelphia is closer to the value side, but I would need +120 (45.5% implied) or better to place that bet at a two percent edge compared to my number.
I do project the Phillies as a -101 favorite (50.3% implied) for the first five innings (F5), however, and I would bet Wheeler's F5 moneyline down to +107 (48.3% implied) at a similar edge.
An F5 Over 3.5 would come into range at -115 (projected 3.94).
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 8:37 p.m. ET
Yu Darvish vs. Clayton Kershaw (full projections here)
Yu Darvish (3.54 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 3.39 SIERA) has primarily been enigmatic throughout his MLB career but provided consistency throughout the 2022 campaign, notching a league-leading 26 quality starts (tied with Framber Valdez) before adding another in San Diego's Game 1 victory against the Mets (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K).
Darvish recorded three quality starts in four outings against the Dodgers this season (25 IP, 18 H, 7 R, 5 BB, 31 K) and has allowed a career .646 OPS in 202 plate appearances against current Dodgers players.
Clayton Kershaw (2.51 xERA, 2.83 xFIP, 2.98 SIERA) only faced the Padres twice this season (12 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K) but owns stellar career numbers against the opposing roster (.547 OPS allowed in 208 plate appearances).
Darvish keeps the Dodgers in their superior split. As a reminder, Los Angeles had the top-ranked offense against right-handed pitching this season (122 wrC+), compared to the No. 8 offense against lefties (113). However, both numbers declined after the trade deadline (120 and 104).
Although the right-hander posted superior numbers against lefties (3.12 xFIP) compared to righties (4.15 xFIP) in 2022, his career splits and recent seasons align more closely with expectations. And Darvish only modified his pitch mix slightly against lefties this season, reducing his slider usage in favor of more four-seamers and cutters.
On a per-pitch basis, the Dodgers were the best offense against fastballs (four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters) this season. And they ranked sixth against sliders.
Kershaw has been the same pitcher for the past five years, deploying either his fastball or slider 80% of the time while mixing in his slow curve and a rare changeup.
Even with diminished fastball velocity, Kershaw has remained an extremely effective starting pitcher, and has shown relatively neutral splits throughout his career.
And the Padres had relatively neutral splits throughout the season — both before and after the trade deadline — when they added Juan Soto, Josh Bell and lefty-killer Brandon Drury to their offensive mix.
San Diego struggled against the fastball all season long (ranking as a bottom-10 offense in both halves) but finished fourth against sliders and 12th against curveballs; those rankings roughly interchanged with their post-deadline lineup.
You'd assume they'll have an easier time sitting on those breaking balls against Kershaw and his low 90s fastball, but he's dominated their offense over a decent enough sample that you have to remain skeptical.
Still, I don't mind the matchup for the Padres' offense on paper.
I don't see value on either side of the Game 2 moneyline. I would set my full-game price targets around -174 for the Dodgers or +207 for the Padres.
For the F5 line, I would move those targets closer to -188 for the Dodgers and +225 for the Padres; the projected difference between Darvish and Kershaw is more significant than the difference between these two bullpens.
Regarding the total, I lean toward the Under 7.5 at -107 or better (projected 7.04) or an F5 Under 4 (to +101).
