MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Julio Rodriguez, Riley Greene, More for Tuesday, April 4
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Rodriguez
We have a stacked 14-game slate of baseball on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks. A quick refresher if you aren't familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here's how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Julio Rodriguez Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 8
An AL West series continues on Tuesday with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Los Angeles Angels. Slated to take the mound for Los Angeles is left-hander Jose Suarez, who should be a solid candidate to back in this contest.
It has not been smooth sailing for Suarez through his first four seasons in MLB, posting a 5.05 ERA. In 2022, he went 8-8 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
While those surface-level stats are not spectacular by any means, his underlying metrics were much more solid. Last season, Suarez ranked in the 55th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, BB% and Chase Rate.
We are going to buy low on Suarez and fade a couple of Mariners hitters in this contest, starting with superstar Julio Rodriguez. While Rodriguez is a stud, this entry is too high.
Part of the reason this square is set at eight is that Rodriguez boasts a career .333 BA, .500 SLG and .358 wOBA through six career plate appearances against Suarez. However, his metrics over that span suggest regression in this individual matchup.
Across that same stretch, Rodriguez possesses a .264 xBA, .468 xSLG, and .312 xwOBA. Those metrics are still solid, but confirm that eight is too high of a number.
AJ Pollock Less Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
The other Seattle hitter we are fading in this contest is AJ Pollock. In a similar fashion to Rodriguez, Pollock is due for regression in this specific matchup.
Through three career plate appearances against Suarez, Pollock possesses a .333 BA, .333 SLG and .295 wOBA. However, over that same stretch, he possesses a .121 xBA, .137 xSLG and .111 xwOBA.
It has been a difficult start to 2023 for Pollock, who is hitless through seven plate appearances. Hitting at the bottom of the order, Pollock would more-than-likely have to generate his own offense to surpass this number.
Riley Greene Hitter Fantasy Score Less Than 5
The second installment of this American League three-game series is set to get underway with the Houston Astros hosting the Detroit Tigers. Slated to take the mound for Houston is left-hander Framber Valdez, who should be an excellent candidate to back against the lowly Tigers.
Picking up right where he left off last season, Valdez tossed five scoreless innings on Opening Day against the Chicago White Sox. In 2022, the left-hander reached the All-Star Game for the first time in his career as he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
We are going to fade a couple of Detroit's hitters in this contest, starting with Riley Greene. While Greene homered in Houston last night, now is the time to sell high on a guy who has had an otherwise tough start to the season.
Through 17 plate appearances, he possesses a .200 BA and .694 OPS. Although it is a small sample size, Greene's underlying metrics are already nearly identical to what they were last year, which were below-average across the board.
Across four career plate appearances against Valdez, Greene possesses a .276 xBA, .397 xSLG and .389 xwOBA. Those metrics are solid, but I still think five will be a tough number for Greene to reach against the dominant Valdez in Houston.
When playing on the road during his rookie campaign, Greene produced a mere .248 BA, .342 SLG and .648 OPS.
Matt Vierling Less Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
The other Detroit hitter to fade in this contest is outfielder Matt Vierling. Like Greene, Vierling homered last night in Houston, although now is the time to sell high against Valdez.
Through six career plate appearances against the left-hander, Vierling possesses a mere .200 BA, .200 SLG and .262 wOBA. When playing on the road in 2022, Vierling's splits dropped by roughly 10% as he posted an underwhelming .244 BA, .350 SLG, and .620 OPS.
The reason this entry is even available is the fact that Vierling leads off for Detroit. However, that may not matter against Valdez, a guy who will likely make quick work of this terrible Tigers lineup.
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